分眾傳媒(002027):疫情之下業績短期承壓 關注後續廣吿需求回暖
投資要點公司發佈2022 年半年報。報吿期內,公司實現營業收入48.52 億元,同比下降33.77%;實現歸母淨利潤14.03 億元,同比下降51.61%;實現扣非歸母淨利潤10.80 億元,同比下降58.34%。其中,二季度實現營業收入19.13 億元,同比下降48.76%,環比下降34.91%;實現歸母淨利潤4.75 億元,同比下降69.02%,環比下降48.89%;實現扣非歸母淨利潤2.68 億元,同比下降80.47%,環比下降66.92%。疫情影響上半年業績,廣吿主結構持續優化。上半年受到新冠疫情的影響,廣吿市場整體承壓,公司在華東和華南等重點地區的廣吿發布受限,地區營收同比分別下滑39.31%和40.77%;此外,互聯網行業廣吿投放大幅縮減,進一步導致業績較上半年整體較大幅度下滑。其中,公司樓宇媒體業務上半年共實現營收44.56 億元,同比下降33.04%;影院媒體業務實現營收3.91 億元,同比下降39.96%。分行業來看,日用品消費行業在宏觀經濟波動下,廣吿投放更具韌性,共實現營收25.75 億元,同比下降10.51%,佔比53.07%,較去年佔比提升13.80 pct;互聯網行業收入大幅下降69.97%至7.20 億元,佔比總營收比例降低17.88 pct 至14.84%;此外,交通、商業及服務和休閒娛樂行業也均出現不同程度營收下滑,房地產家居行業實現營收逆勢上升65.1%。利潤率受疫情影響短期波動,費用率基本穩定。報吿期內,公司毛利率為58.96%,較去年同期下降6.92pct,淨利率為29.49%,同比下降10.30pct。費用方面,受到銷售人員縮減的影響,公司上半年銷售/管理/財務/研發費用分別為8.96/2.88/-0.44/0.41 億元,同比分別變動-33.16%/16.05%/-/-15.93%;銷售/管理/財務/研發費用率分別為18.47%/5.93%/-0.91%/0.84%,同比分別變動0.17pct/2.54pct/-0.54pct/0.18pct。報吿期內,公司信用和資產減值共計3.09 億元,同比增長17.54%。【投資建議】上半年受到疫情影響導致短期經濟活躍度有所波動,廣吿發布受限,影響公司經營業績,我們下調公司2022-2024 年盈利預測,預計公司2022-2024年營業收入分別為114.13/154.44/177.58 億元,歸母淨利潤分別為39.51/61.00/74.71 億元,EPS 分別為0.27/0.42/0.52 元,對應PE 分別為22/14/11 倍。公司的廣吿主結構持續優化,隨着疫情逐步恢復,廣吿主投放意願有望恢復增長,且更具韌性,維持公司“增持”評級。【風險提示】宏觀經濟下行;疫情反覆;行業競爭加劇。
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