《大行報告》大摩料港銀9月上調最優惠利率 料本港樓價明年再跌5%
摩根士丹利發表報告表示,就匯豐銀行及渣打銀行近日相繼上調新客H按封頂息率25個基點,而一個月香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)於近三個月期間已累升170個基點,至1.9釐,隨着HIBOR上升及銀行總結餘(約1,250億元)下降,料大部分按揭封頂息率將很快觸及2.75釐上限。
該行已預計港銀將在9月上調最優惠利率,若銀行「按兵不動」,最終將出現按揭貸款利率低於銀行同業拆借利率的情況。監於港元儲蓄餘額高於港元按揭貸款餘額,這將拖累淨息差,除非儲蓄率的增幅較低。
大摩表示,由於預計美聯儲局將在9月再加息50個基點,匯豐銀行及渣打銀行近日相繼上調新客H按封頂息率,將爲相關銀行提供更多時間,然後再對最優惠利率和儲蓄利率做出進一步的決定。而該行對香港銀行的淨息差預測顯示淨息差擴張強勁。
對房地產市場和開發商股票的影響方面,就匯豐銀行及渣打銀行近日相繼上調新客H按封頂息,根據上一個週期,當一個月HIBOR確實超過3釐,但若美聯儲局利率在此之後迅速見頂之時,港銀並未將優惠利率提高超過25個基點,這種不願提高利率的做法或可能對業主、買家以及地產開發商有利。當利率上升將導致買家負擔能力下滑,在該行的計算中,每月還款額與每月收入的比率爲53%(如果利率達到3.5%,相關比率則可能達到60%),這是該行對本港房地產開發商股票持審慎看法的原因。該行指本港樓價年初至今已下滑5%,並預計2023年還會再下跌5%。
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