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新能源熱管理系統(一):量價齊升 本土供應鏈崛起
格隆匯 08-19 00:00
【投資要點】 新能源汽車熱管理是駕乘安全與舒適性的重要保證,其相較燃油車有根本性改變。從功能看,新能源汽車增加了動力電池的制熱需求;從實現方式看,新能源汽車空調製熱時需要額外增加PTC 或熱泵,壓縮機需升級為電動壓縮機,三電系統熱管理也需要增加相應的迴路。其整體構造更加複雜,涉及零部件更多。為了避免複雜系統帶來的管路宂餘,新能源汽車熱管理系統正朝着集成化發展。 從市場空間看,2025 年全球新能源汽車熱管理市場規模有望突破1000 億元。單車ASP:據電器工業測算,新能源汽車熱管理系統的複雜化、集成化帶來單車ASP 相較傳統燃油車 2-3 倍的提升;量:據BNEF 預測,2025 年全球新能源汽車銷量有望達到2060 萬輛,2021-2025 年GAGR 32.9%。據NE 時代,2025 年全球新能源汽車熱管理系統市場規模可達1000 億元以上,2021-2025 年GAGR 28.2%。 從供給看,國內廠商有望從核心零部件供應商向外延伸成為系統供應商。早期國內廠商由於單獨提供集成系統的能力較弱,主要供應的是壓縮機、閥類、泵類等零部件。近年來,隨着技術與生產水平的逐漸成熟,部分企業通過加大研發或併購等方式掌握了局部模塊的整合能力,在成本優勢的加持下,獲得了下游車企的部分訂單。隨着新能源滲透率的不斷攀升與國內新能源整車廠的崛起,熱管理供應鏈有望不斷向國內轉移。國內熱管理企業在局部模塊的基礎上繼續延伸,打造更高效的集成化熱管理系統,未來有望更加充分的享受市場紅利。 【配置建議】 從新能源汽車熱管理行業發展趨勢來看,低能耗的熱泵空調有望成為新能源汽車的首選方案,因此我們建議關注在熱泵空調及其零部件上具備競爭力的廠商,如從傳統制冷行業切入的盾安環境,特斯拉熱交換器核心供應商銀輪股份。同時,熱管理集成化成長性高且壁壘性強,建議關注在集成化熱泵上探索較深的三花智控。 【風險提示】 原材料價格波動風險 新能源汽車產銷量不及預期 新能源汽車熱管理項目進展不及預期 下游客户需求不及預期
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