《大行報告》高盛料港銀最遲9月22日上調最優惠利率 看好中銀(02388.HK)
高盛發表報告預料美國聯儲局9月再次加息,本港銀行即將上調最優惠利率(Prime rate)(P),估計最遲於9月22日,即聯儲局議息後加P。儘管銀行股價可能會對最優惠利率反應負面,但預計未來12個月股價將上漲,因爲銀行財務業績將改善。
高盛估計,「加P」25個基點將分別使中銀香港(02388.HK)和恆生銀行(00011.HK)對淨息差的負面影響分別約爲2個和5個基點,但認爲這種負面影響是較小,因預計2021至24年淨息差分別擴闊54個及58個基點;並且已把息差啤打值估算考慮在內。
高盛看好中銀香港(02388.HK),因相對恆生(00011.HK),中銀對零售銀行的依賴度較低,將中銀列入確信買入名單。而對比渣打(02888.HK),匯控(00005.HK)擁有較高的香港業務組合,並且有較大的香港/環球零售銀行業務,維持對這兩股的「買入」評級。
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