《大行報告》摩通一舉降洛鉬(03993.HK)評級至「減持」 削目標價至2.6元
摩根大通發表研究報告,預期行業結構性轉變對鈷的長期需求前景不利,將洛陽鉬業(03993.HK)評級由「增持」一舉降至「減持」。
該行指,鑑於磷酸鐵鋰電池不需要鈷,而高鎳三元正極材料電池的鈷用量亦較常規電池少40%,認為雖然電動汽車電池需求增長強勁,但結構性轉變最終將導致鈷需求增長放緩,估計全球鈷需求可能在2025年見頂,由於需求放緩,鈷價料跌至每噸約3萬美元,較目前現貨水平約5萬美元下跌逾30%。
雖然對洛鉬而言,鈷為銅的副產品,但銅及鈷合共仍為洛鉬毛利貢獻60%,因應鈷和電動汽車需求的脫鉤預期,料導致估值向下重評。考慮銅及鈷價格預測被下調,該行將洛鉬2023及2024年盈利預測下調13%及16%,較市場普遍預期低20%及39%,目標價由5.4元下調至2.6元。報告補充,即使商品價格下跌,本年至今洛鉬跑贏指數9個百分點,料市場或對洛鉬盈利潛力過度樂觀。
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