微盟集團(02013.HK):壓力尚存 復甦漸現
2022 年上半年收入基本符合我們預期,虧損幅度小於我們預期微盟集團公佈2022 年上半年業績:總收入9.0 億元,剔除數字媒介業務終止影響後同比下降6.2%,基本符合我們此前預期;經調整歸母淨虧損5.2億元,虧損幅度小於我們此前預期,主要是由於其他收益淨額和所得税抵扣等項目的影響。 發展趨勢 疫情導致收入承壓,邊際改善初步顯現。在疫情的影響下,上半年微盟集團的SaaS 業務和精準營銷業務均面臨一定壓力。訂閲解決方案上半年收入同比增長5.7%至5.8 億元,主要由於疫情防控期間公司SaaS 產品的獲客與履約受到負面影響。管理層表示,疫情衝擊使得微盟在一季度和二季度的實際訂閲訂單相較於目標值分別低7%和32%。不過,我們認為公司正在呈現出邊際改善的趨勢:1)大客化戰略進展順利,上半年大客收入的佔比達41%,剔除海鼎影響後智慧零售收入的內生增長達60%,品牌商户數同比增長39%至1,155 家,公司在家裝建材和食品快消領域收穫立邦、魯花等眾多頭部客户;2)生態化戰略持續推進,目前80%以上的客户已在使用WOS 系統,上半年生態夥伴收入超過2021 年全年;3)從實際數字看,根據管理層公開披露,2022 年6 月SaaS 訂單金額環比增長超過50%,7 月同比增長超過20%,管理層預計下半年合同金額能實現約30%的同比增長,從而帶動下半年的訂閲收入實現10%-20%的同比增長。商家解決方案受宏觀經濟和廣吿預算收緊的影響較大,上半年收入同比下滑22%至3.2億元,毛收入同比下滑25%至42.1 億元。管理層表示,從6 月開始品牌電商、零售連鎖等行業客户的廣吿投放有所恢復,8 月的日均消耗已恢復至3,300 萬元(與去年同期持平),9 月底有望進一步提升至3,600 萬元,同時視頻號、快手和小紅書等新興渠道的開拓有望帶來進一步的增量。 費用管控措施持續,有望於2H23 實現盈虧平衡。管理層表示,公司上半年的人員優化幅度在20%左右,有望帶來年化3 億元左右的成本節約,同時下半年公司將持續進行一定幅度的人員優化。隨着宏觀經濟回暖,公司的收入增速回歸正常軌道,疊加公司費用管控措施效果的顯現,我們預計公司的虧損幅度將持續收窄。根據管理層指引,公司有望在2023 年下半年實現盈虧平衡。 盈利預測與估值 維持2022 年和2023 年收入和調整後歸母淨利潤預測不變。維持跑贏行業評級和5.60 港元目標價(基於6 倍2022 年市銷率)。公司目前交易於4.6倍2022 年市銷率,我們的目標價較當前股價有31.5%的上行空間。 風險 疫情影響;行業競爭加劇;宏觀環境疲弱。
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