《大行報告》大摩:熱浪推高內地電力需求 料燃煤電企7月或扭虧錄輕微利潤
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,連日高溫令內地電力嚴重超出負荷,其中四川電力供需形勢加劇,當地政府宣布啟動3級保供電調控措施,部分高載能企業自周一(15日)起停產6天,以保障民生用電。
該行預期,四川限電主要由於當地電力需求強勁,加上水電季節性供應未能滿足用電需求,需要以煤電及進口電力來支撐。此外,四川承諾向華東地區輸電,令情況加劇。
不過大摩預期今年將不會再出現2021年的大規模停電,因為兩次停電背後原因不同,2021年的大規模停電除了由於電力需求激增外,亦因為當局正執行能源消耗控制政策,以及當時煤炭價格飆升,令煤炭獨立發電企業出現虧損。
熱浪推動中國7月電力需求增長6.3%,居民用電需求更增長26.8%,大摩預期隨著7月份煤炭產量增加,以及國家發改委強制執行煤炭合同定價,部分煤炭獨立發電企業7月份或能實現盈虧平衡或錄得輕微利潤。但由於四川限電,預期當地多晶硅供應可能中斷,近期多晶硅供應仍然緊張,任何供應中斷都可能導致價格持續走高。
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