《大行報告》渣打:人行降息為政策轉變 望以低利率弱人民幣刺激增長
渣打發表報告指,人行下調逆回購和MLF利率出乎意料,該行將降息視為政策轉變,表明隨著美國聯儲局變得較不鷹派,人行將採取更加溫和的貨幣政策立場,希望以更低利率和更弱的人民幣刺激增長。
渣打認為,昨日人行逆回購操作中資金淨回籠2,000億元人民幣,反映出銀行對資金的需求不足,而不是人行增加流動性,因為與MLF工具相比,二級市場的融資成本低約80個基點。預計人行將在年底前將MLF利率進一步下調10-20個基點,但只有在信貸需求復甦時才會進一步下調存款準備金率(RRR)。渣打認為人行下星期有可能將5年期LPR下調15-20基點。
渣打認為,疲軟的需求目前是中國經濟增長的主要拖累,包括疲軟的企業信貸需求和疲軟的家庭對商品和服務的需求,因此通過降低利率刺激需求,比通過降準提供更多流動性供應更有效地支撐增長。
渣打將第三季底人民幣匯率預測從每6.65兌一美元調整至每6.75兌一美元,同時維持年終預測不變為每6.6兌一美元。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.