牧高笛(603908):露營熱度持續 品牌業務高速增長
投資要點公司發佈2022 年中報,2022 年上半年實現營業收入8.67 億元,同比增長61.34%。其中,外銷(OEM/ODM)業務實現收入5.18 億元,同比增長24.81%;品牌業務(大牧+小牧)實現收入3.46 億元,同比增長182.25%。同期實現歸母淨利潤1.13 億元,同比增長111.80%,扣非淨利潤1.10 億元,同比增長138.02%。品牌業務:(1)大牧(專業露營裝備)表現亮眼,露營需求爆發式增長背景下,實現高基數高增長。2022H1 大牧實現收入3.14 億元,同比增長279.89%,在2021H1/2021H2 同比增長173.66%/145.98%情況下進一步提速。分渠道來看,大牧線上自營收入1.47 億元,同比增長248.81%,線下渠道收入1.67 億元,同比增長341.04%。短期來看,國內露營火熱,滲透率提升,裝備需求爆發式增長,滲透期紅利帶動大牧實現高增長。中長期來看,行業內露營品牌競爭格局尚不明確,大牧豐富產品矩陣,通過IP 聯名、贊助綜藝、贊助專業賽事活動提高品牌影響力與曝光度,有望分化為行業龍頭。(2)小牧(户外服飾)短期業績受阻,未來户外服飾需求有望回暖。2022H1 小牧實現收入0.3 億元,同比減少21.77%。小牧服裝以秋冬款為主,夏季為銷售淡季,且僅有線下渠道,門店銷售受疫情影響較大,多方因素影響下,上半年業績表現不佳。未來小牧加速線上渠道佈局,露營、飛盤等户外活動持續火熱有望催生户外鞋服需求,小牧業績有望回升。OEM/ODM 業務:帳篷代工龍頭,外銷業務持續穩健增長。2022H1,公司外銷業務收入5.18 億元,同比增長24.81%,其中,2022Q1/2022Q2分別實現2.34 億元/2.84 億元,同比43.98%/12.42%,2022Q2 增速有所回落,我們分析主要是由於國內需求旺盛,公司將產能傾斜給內銷業務,使得部分外銷訂單延遲發貨。外銷業務具有明顯的季節性,通常為8-11 月份為訂貨期,次年上半年為交貨期,海外露營市場成熟,公司核心優質客户穩定,外銷業務確定性強,增長穩健。利潤端:品牌業務毛利率高於外銷業務,拉動公司整體利潤率上行。2022H1 , 公司整體毛利率為27.27% , 比2020/2021 分別增加1.78pct/2.44pct,比2020/2021 提升顯著。2022H1 品牌業務/外銷業務毛利率分別為35.95%/20.93%,國內露營滲透率持續提升,品牌業務高速增長,佔比逐年提升(2020/2021/2022H1 營收佔比分別為25.09%/33.21%/40.06%),促進公司整體毛利率提升。【投資建議】露營滲透率和客單價提升,露營裝備市場空間廣闊。公司作為帳篷代工龍頭與優質品牌商,充分受益行業紅利,同時豐富產品矩陣,提升品牌力,有望實現持續增長,分化為國內露營龍頭品牌。我們預計,2022-2024 年公司營業收入分別為15.42/20.82/26.83 億元, 同比增速分別為67.02%/35.05%/28.82%,歸母淨利潤分別為1.74/2.41/3.10 億元,同比增速分別為121.71%/38.37%/28.71%;EPS 分別為2.61/3.62/4.65 元;對應PE 分別為42/31/24 倍,給予“增持”評級。【風險提示】品牌業務發展不及預期;露營熱度消退;行業競爭加劇。
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