温氏股份(300498)深度研究:週期拐點如期而至 養殖龍頭東山再起
【投資要點】畜禽養殖企業典範,重整旗鼓再次出發。公司深耕肉雞養殖四十載,肉豬養殖近三十載,現已是國內農業產業化重點龍頭企業,是國內第二大生豬養殖企業。因非洲豬瘟與新冠肺炎雙疫情影響,公司養殖業務產生一定虧損。自2021 年起公司降本增效、養殖業務逐漸恢復正常運作,計提減值、經營面穩步改善。2022H1 生豬出欄量達800 萬頭,僅次於牧原股份,財務表現回穩指日可待。新一輪豬週期啟動,豬肉價格漲勢可期。於週期性而言,新一輪豬週期於今年四月開啟,豬肉價格起底反彈,週期長度約為4 年,或將持續到2023 年底;於季節性而言,三四季度為豬肉需求旺季,年底可達成豬肉價格小高峯。我們預計豬肉價格將持續上漲到今年年底,明年維持高位。經營模式迭代升級,去蕪存菁。當下的温氏模式為“公司+現代養殖小區+農户”模式,在一定程度上彌補了原有模式的缺陷。“公司+現代養殖小區”可將“公司+農户”與自繁自養傳統養殖模式優點整合。養殖小區可以有效提高單場養殖規模和育肥舍的建設標準,走標準化、集約化養殖路線,提高育肥效率,且轉移部分資金與固定資產壓力。同時,公司吸取非洲豬瘟疫情經驗教訓,築高築牢種豬場生物安全防控體系,實現對動物疫情的科學有效防控。規模化進程提速,出欄量穩定提升。中國頭部養殖企業集中度較低,非洲豬瘟疫情加速散户出清,生豬養殖市場規模化進程提速。在飼料原料價格持續走高的情形下,公司降本增效效果顯著,生豬養殖綜合成本逐步下降,2022 年5 月份養豬綜合成本已降至8.5 元/斤左右。疫情後公司生豬產能逐漸恢復,預計年底可實現能繁母豬存欄140 萬頭,保證相對充分的肉豬供給,預計2022 年全年實現生豬出欄1800萬頭,2023 年實現生豬出欄2600 萬-2800 萬頭。雞豬養殖雙主業,兩翼齊飛。2021 年公司銷售肉雞11.01 億羽,約佔全國黃羽雞和白羽雞總出欄量的11%,在同行業A 股上市公司中排名第一。雞豬兩大主業並肩前行,一方面可以在生豬價格高走時,雞豬共振實現雙贏;另一方面可以在生豬價格低迷時,以肉雞營收作為彌補,風險分擔。【投資建議】預計公司2022-2024 年營業收入分別為748.73/1134.22/1260.08 億元,同比增速分別為15.25%/51.49%/11.10%;歸母淨利潤分別為-3.25/219.39/290.88億元,同比增速分別為97.57%/6846.67%/32.58%;EPS 分別為-0.05/3.35/4.44元/股;對應PE 分別為-/6.82/5.14 倍。考慮到2022 年公司及部分可比公司業績一致預期仍處於異常狀態,2023 年伴隨週期上行業績恢復正常,因此根據可比公司2023 年水平和公司歷史估值給予公司2023 年8 倍PE,對應12 個月目標價27.08 元,擁有18.56%的上升空間。首次覆蓋,給予“買入”評級。【風險提示】非洲豬瘟、新冠肺炎雙疫情風險;肉豬價格不及預期;政策變動風險;出欄量不及預期。
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