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新洋豐(000902):業績符合預期 看好新能源、磷精細化工品佈局
格隆匯 08-10 00:00
1H22 業績符合我們預期 新洋豐公佈1H22 業績:收入96.17 億元,同比增長43.4%;歸母淨利潤9.2 億元,對應每股盈利0.72 元,同比增長31.57%,符合我們預期。 1H22 扣非歸母淨利潤9.1 億元,同比增長31.7%;經營活動現金流淨額19.9 億元,同比增長54.4%。1H22 公司業績增長較快主要原因是下游農業高景氣帶動化肥需求增加,化肥價格大幅上漲所致。 1H22 公司磷肥實現營業收入17.97 億元,同比增長80.22%;常規/新型複合肥分別實現營業收入52.9/22.9 億元,同比增長39.4%/49.9%。根據卓創資訊1H22 磷酸一銨(55%)均價3544 元/噸,同比上漲40.9%,磷肥價格上漲使公司營收快速增長同時磷肥毛利率增加1.59ppt 至24.4%;因原材料漲價,常規/新型複合肥毛利率分別下降3.45ppt/2.65ppt 至13.5%/20.3%。 發展趨勢 看好公司新型複合肥銷量持續增長。下游農業維持高景氣疊加磷礦石價格高位,我們預計公司磷肥盈利能力有望維持。同時公司2021 年於甘肅金昌投資6 億元建設60 萬噸/年新型作物專用肥首期項目計劃於今年建成投產,我們預計將持續驅動公司新型複合肥銷量增長和市佔率提升。 佈局新能源,有望成為公司第二增長曲線。公司一期5 萬噸磷酸鐵已於2022 年6 月投產,我們預計該項目有望增厚公司全年淨利潤。此外公司預計將投資60 億元建設30 萬噸磷酸鐵、15 萬噸磷酸鐵鋰及配套項目;擬分別投資60/12 億元於瑞昌/荊門建設磷礦伴生資源利用項目。我們認為公司以上新能源和磷化工材料的佈局,有望成為公司第二增長曲線。 堅持產業鏈垂直一體化戰略,成本優勢有望得以鞏固。2022 年7 月年產能180 萬噸的竹園溝礦業100%股權注入上市公司,疊加2021 年已注入年產能90 萬噸的巴姑磷礦,公司預計磷礦石產能將達到270 萬噸/年。另一方面2022 年7 月公司荊門基地30 萬噸/年合成氨技改項目開始試生產,預計可滿足湖北三個基地磷酸一銨及複合肥需求。我們認為磷礦注入、合成氨技改將降低公司磷肥生產成本,鞏固公司成本優勢。 盈利預測與估值 我們維持2022 年和2023 年盈利預測15.2 億元和18.6 億元不變,當前股價對應2022/23 年市盈率14.0/11.4x。維持跑贏行業評級和22.00 元目標價,對應18.9 倍2022 年和15.5 倍2023 年市盈率,較當前股價有35.1%的上行空間。 風險 磷肥價格低於預期,磷酸鐵價格低於預期,新型肥銷量不及預期。
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