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達利食品(3799.HK):預計飲料業務將隨行業承壓 同時原材料價格高企侵蝕盈利
格隆匯 08-09 11:30
事件一。據國家統計局數據,22 年上半年全國飲料產量合計同比下滑約0.2%,其中分季度來看,22Q1 飲料產量合計增長約7.8%,22Q2 飲料產量當期值合計同比下滑約6.6%。 事件二。據wind 數據統計,2022 年上半年棕櫚油價格同比增長62.56%,麪粉價格同比增長4.98%,雞蛋價格同比增長9.36%,南寧地區糖價格同比增長7.12%。 二季度飲料行業整體下滑,預計公司飲料業務將承壓。2022 年4 月份全國疫情多點散發,部分地區疫情防控形勢嚴峻,我們認為這將導致線下客流量的下滑以及户外消費場景的減少。而軟飲料消費與户外人流量表現有較大相關性,因此2022 年二季度飲料行業整體表現較差並呈下滑趨勢。 此外參照2020 年情況來看,2020 年上半年在新冠疫情環境下,全國飲料行業產量同比降低3.41%,而公司飲料業務收入同比降低36.71%,而2020 年下半年隨着疫情防控趨好,全國飲料行業產量同比降低2.25%,降幅環比收斂,而公司飲料業務收入同比增長50.13%,呈現良好恢復勢頭。 我們認為,在2022 年上半年和Q2 飲料行業整體承壓背景下,公司飲料業務亦同樣面臨一定壓力。不過相信隨着線下出行人流量的恢復(例如6 月1 日上海有序恢復住宅小區出入、公共交通運營和機動車通行),看好並期待飲料行業與公司飲料業績將逐步得到恢復。 預計原材料價格高企將侵蝕盈利能力,期待後續壓力緩解。公司產品主要原材料包括麪粉、棕櫚油、雞蛋、糖等。據公司招股説明書,以2012-2014 年平均值來計算,其佔總營收比例分別為4.54%/2.71%/5.67%/ 8.63%。據wind數據統計,2022 年上半年麪粉、棕櫚油、雞蛋、糖等原材料漲幅較大,參照2022 年上半年相關原材料漲幅計算,同時假設其他毛利率影響因素不變,我們預計將影響公司3.06%的毛利率水平。此外進入7 月以來,棕櫚油價格同比增長7.21%,價格同比漲幅在大幅收斂,期待下半年成本壓力緩解。 盈利預測與投資建議。考慮到上半年的原材料成本壓力,以及軟飲料行業承壓,我們下調2022-2024 年公司營業總收入分別為219.26/238.31/257.23 億元, 主營業務收入為218.46/237.48/256.34 億元, 歸母淨利潤分別為31.39/35.84/40.07 億元,對應EPS 分別為0.23/0.26/0.29 元/股。我們給予公司12-15 倍的PE(2023E)估值區間,對應每股價值區間為3.12-3.90 元/股,按照港元兑人民幣0.80 匯率計算,對應合理價值區間3.90-4.88 港元/股,繼續給予“優於大市”評級。 風險提示。(1)食品安全風險,(2)市場競爭加劇,(3)新產品、新渠道、新市場拓展不及預期,(4)上游原材料成本大幅波動
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