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五糧液(000858):奮楫揚帆穩馭舟 篤行不怠赴新程
投資要點高端酒賽道優,五糧液品牌基因強大。五糧液歷史底藴深厚,擁有強大的品牌基因,伴隨 20 世紀90 年代以來濃香酒消費習慣的培養,公司通過數次擴建大大提升產能、大商制及 OEM 模式,實現快速擴張,成為濃香龍頭。在消費升級持續推動下,白酒品牌力認知度持續加強,千元價格帶量價齊升,五糧液在千元價格帶享有最高的市場份額,有望進一步享受行業帶來的β紅利。治理與發展:蟬聯酒王寶座十餘載,後續成長步伐不及茅台。1985 年王春國上任後提出“三步走戰略”,提價保質、擴大生產規模,尤其這一時期的OEM+大商制直接推動公司大踏步發展,成為“一代酒王”。2007 年唐橋董事長上任後積極求變,但由於內部大商制弊端顯露,茅台持續追趕,公司憾失龍頭地位,但通過在產品、體制、渠道等方面採取一系列措施,順利渡過行業調整期。治理與二次創業:多維度改革,榮耀迴歸。2017 年李曙光接任董事長,開啟“二次創業”新徵程: 1)體制改革激發活力: 混改定增引入員工、經銷商持股,激發員工積極性,強化渠道推力。2)產品戰略實現聚焦:強化核心品牌高端定位,貫徹“1+3”主品牌策略;對系列酒瘦身,貫徹“4+4”系列酒戰略,精簡條碼,優化結構。3)渠道數字化構建:構建三大數據平台,全面導入控盤分利模式,推動了渠道量價恢復正循環,渠道利潤逐步改善。4)打造品牌價值:堅守品質基礎上,通過持續宣傳、打造文化IP 等方式持續提升品牌價值。治理與改革:改革深化,和美營銷,2022 再出發。2022 年初曾從欽上任,成為五糧液十餘年首位兼任集團和股份公司的董事長、黨委書記的領導,本屆班子經驗豐富,在過往基礎上持續推進改革和進一步發展:1)產品堅持三大雙輪定位:經典五糧液全年不設量的目標,着重拉昇品牌價值、培育高端消費者;普五堅持小步慢跑,穩中有漲;非標滿足多元化消費需求;五糧春逐步提價實現品牌修復和提升。2)渠道掌控力繼續增強:深化渠道精細化改革,持續加強團購渠道的發展,通過數字化加持進一步加強終端掌控力。3)品牌價值持續提升:保證高品質的同時持續對外發聲,拉昇品牌高度;同時通過一系列圍繞“和美文化”的營銷組合拳,持續擴大品牌寬度。盈利預測與投資評級:我們調整2022-2024 年營收746.35/871.27/995.05億元(前值為758.09/867.26/981.74 億元),對應增速13%/17%/14%;歸母淨利潤272.03/324.21/375.7 億元(前值為272.05/317.88/363.55 億元),對應增速為16%/19%/16%;對應PE 為26/21/19 倍。考慮公司自身強大品牌力及清晰明確的發展規劃,給予 2023 年30 倍PE,對應股價250.5 元 ,維持 “買入”評級。風險提示:宏觀環境不及預期,產品提價不及預期,疫情反覆。
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