績前一度大漲6%,業績底出現?阿裏或首次迎來季度營收下滑
阿裏巴巴將於北京時間8月4日(週四)美股盤前發佈截至2022年6月30日止(對應2023財年第一季度)業績。
根據彭博一致預期,預計阿裏巴巴2023財年第一季度營收爲2033.63億元人民幣,同比下滑1.2%,調整後淨利潤爲284.27億元人民幣。
考慮到封控措施的影響,2022年第二季度是新冠大流行以來中國盈利最差的季度之一也不足爲奇,科技公司也不例外,彭博行業研究分析師Marvin Chen表示。科技公司的成長前景還面臨監管方面的阻力,這是一種更具結構性和長期性的趨勢。
中信證券預計6月季度集團收入約1988億(yoy-3%),其中,
中國商業收入約爲1357億元(yoy-6%),
國際商業收入約爲149億元(yoy-2%),
雲計算業務收入規模約爲181億元(yoy+21%),
菜鳥收入約爲122億元(yoy+5%)。
考慮到公司持續推進降本增效及業務減虧,中信證券略上調公司6月季度Adjusted EBITA預測,預計本季度Adjusted EBITA約爲292億(yoy-30%,Margin爲15%)。
中信證券認爲,6月季度,伴隨着宏觀經濟修復及公司降本增效戰略的推進,公司基本面出現回暖跡象,預計公司利潤端有望在6月季度觸底。行業監管政策持續釋放積極信號以及公司基本面修復預期下,公司估值壓制因素有望得到緩解。
長期來看,阿裏巴巴仍將是中國數智化進程的重要參與方,外部環境改善時,公司的科技投資價值有望被重新認知。維持對公司中長期數字化商業服務能力相對樂觀的態度,維持公司港股及美股“買入”評級。
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