深度*公司*絕味食品(603517):門店快速擴張 下沉低線市場 佈局輕餐飲龍頭
絕味食品作為休閒滷製品龍頭,供應鏈及組織管理能力突出。公司發展戰略清晰,深耕鴨脖主業的同時圍繞相關賽道佈局輕餐飲產業鏈。公司短期業績受疫情擾動承壓,但不改長期向好趨勢。首次覆蓋, 給予“增持”評級。 支撐評級的要點 休閒滷製品零售口徑規模約1300 億元左右,目前仍處於年均增長超過10%的上升階段,當前龍頭企業集中度較低,市佔率仍有較大提升空間。 休閒滷製品行業CR5 合計市佔率不到20%。從企業擴張路徑來看,滷製品大多以鮮貨產品為主,因此對冷鏈運輸、存儲環境等標準化操作流程要求較高,頭部企業具備領先的運營能力,在連鎖模式下,單店標準化助力休閒滷製品企業快速擴張。我們認為在疫情背景下,行業加速洗牌,龍頭企業市佔率仍有較大提升空間。 公司發展戰略清晰,內生、外延雙向並進。(1)鴨脖等休閒滷製品主業方面,疫情背景下行業加速洗牌,絕味逆勢擴張,短期目標是進一步提升公司的市佔率和行業地位。公司規劃2022 年新增門店數量為1000-1500家,同時開展“星火燎原計劃”下沉三四線市場。從全國門店佈局來看,絕味60%的門店位於一二線城市,門店密度相對飽和。考慮到三四線城市居民在休閒娛樂方面的消費接近一二線城市,且房租低、坪效高,所以公司開始着重佈局低線市場。公司目前單店模型較為成熟,可快速複製,疊加強渠道管理能力及品牌效應,我們預計2022 年公司可超額完成開店目標,全年開店數量在1500 家以上。(2)外延方面,公司重點圍繞滷味、特色味型調味品、輕餐飲等與公司核心戰略密切相關的產業賽道進行投資,採用直接投資+孵化探索的形式佈局滷味相關標的,有望成為公司新的增長點。目前公司在餐桌滷味前五名的公司中佈局了3 家。 估值 公司供應鏈及組織管理能力突出,盈利能力水平遠高於同行其他企業。 短期業績受疫情擾動承壓,下半年隨着疫情防控政策不斷優化,消費場景復甦,我們判斷公司業績將不斷改善。預計2022-2024 年公司營收分別為72.9 億元、87.7 億元、102 億元,同比增11%、20%、16%。歸母淨利分別為5.6 億元、11.0 億元、13.5 億元,同比-43%、97%、23%。EPS 分別為0.91、1.79、2.20 元/股,對應PE 為59、30、24 倍。首次覆蓋給予“增持”評級。 評級面臨的主要風險 受疫情擾動較大,終端需求疲軟。門店增長低於預期,三四線城市開拓進展不順。原材料價格上漲,成本端承壓。食品安全問題。
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