龍大美食(002726):強化食品佈局 深耕肉製品謀發展
強化食品佈局,深耕肉製品謀發展 公司上半年業績出現大幅度下降,據公司公吿,上半年預計實現歸母淨利潤0.33-0.40 億元,同比下降87.01%-89.28%,我們認為主要因為1)生豬價格大幅下降,公司養殖業務出現虧損;2)凍肉業務出現虧損,計提存貨減值。鑑於豬價進入上行期、公司食品產能不斷建設及釋放,我們上調公司鮮凍肉業務、食品業務銷量,下調毛利率預測,預計公司22-24 年EPS 分別為0.22、0.46、0.75 元,由於公司今年養殖業務虧損拖累業績,而公司核心食品業務具有潛力,因此採用23 年估值,參考2023 年可比公司Wind一致預期20 倍PE 均值,考慮到公司肉製品業務處於快速擴張期,我們給予23 年25 倍PE,目標價11.50 元,維持“買入”評級。 屠宰持續上量,渠道耕耘帶動食品佔比提升 公司作為屠宰起家,擁有對外出口品質優勢的屠宰肉製品企業,目前處於產能快速建設階段。截至21 年末,公司已經擁有屠宰產能1100 萬頭,並計劃新增400 萬頭屠宰產能。21 年公司共屠宰生豬641.1 萬頭,同比增長57.7%,我們認為隨着公司產能的投產,區域覆蓋面的加大,未來兩年屠宰量有望實現較快增長。食品方面,公司持續全國化佈局,21 年末經銷商數量達到8850 家,同比增長31.34%。其中,西南地區同比增長99.16%、華南地區增長201.35%。在渠道擴展的帶動下,公司21 年食品收入佔比達到7.90%,同比提升1.41pct。 淡化養殖屬性,強調預製菜佈局 公司重新定位,淡化公司生豬養殖屬性,控制生豬出欄規模,大力發展食品,尤其是預製菜。在產品研發方面,公司以市場需求為導向,不斷改進口味、優化保鮮工藝,與西華大學合作推動川式菜品創新,21 年末已經儲備新品100 餘款。公司21 年末擁有食品產能15.5 萬噸,在建產能(包括海南食品廠、巴中食品廠等)17.5 萬噸,建成後達年產能33 萬噸。 目標價11.50 元,維持“買入”評級 我們預計公司22-24 年EPS 分別為0.22、0.46、0.75 元(前值1.13、1.64、-元),給予公司23 年25 倍PE,更新目標價為11.50 元(前值14.16 元),維持“買入”評級。 風險提示:生豬產能恢復速度不及預期,非洲豬瘟疫情風險,食品安全風險,渠道開拓效果不及預期,產品研發不及市場需求,豬價波動風險。
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