撫順特鋼(600399):高温合金龍頭 行業紅利疊加鎳價回落迎拐點
投資亮點 首次覆蓋撫順特鋼(600399)給予跑贏行業評級,目標價23.79 元,對應2023年38x P/E。理由如下: 國內特殊鋼龍頭,混改後業績快速增長,2022 年上半年業績短暫承壓。 公司深耕特殊鋼領域,以“三高一特”為核心產品,長期佔據國內特種特殊鋼龍頭地位。公司2017 年混改完成後經營顯著改善,業績快速增長,2021 年實現營收74.14 億元,同比增長18.21%,歸母淨利潤7.83 億元,同比增長42.02%。2022 年上半年受鎳、鈷等原材料價格和能源價格大幅上漲影響,公司預計歸母淨利潤同比減少50.6%~64.52%至1.53~2.13 億元,業績短暫承壓。 航發批產上量疊加國產替代,國產高温合金市場空間廣闊。1)在特種領域,高温合金主要用於航空發動機熱端部件及機匣、加力燃燒室、尾噴口等其他部件,在航空發動機中重量佔比約40%-60%,“十四五”期間重點國產航空發動機型號批產上量,高温合金需求有望較快提升。2)2020 年國內高温合金需求約5.5 萬噸,國產化率約60%,仍存在較大供需缺口。下游需求提升疊加國產替代,國產高温合金市場空間廣闊。 技術優勢突出,擴產+技術改造項目提供長期成長動能。1)公司技術優勢突出,截至2022 年3 月已獲得專利授權59 項,獲得國家、省部級獎勵300 餘項,在航空航天等特種領域具有競爭優勢。2)2020 年以來公司連續發佈擴產計劃和技術改造項目,分別計劃投資7.9 億元、6.88 億元,公司預計未來兩年內建成投產,我們認為有望提升產能、改善生產設備、夯實技術和產品優勢,進一步提升公司核心競爭力。 我們與市場的最大不同?市場此前對公司成本端有較大擔心,我們認為隨着上游鎳價大幅回落,下半年公司盈利能力有望迎來拐點,疊加“十四五”期間我國航空裝備加速更新換代,多個國產航空發動機型號批產高温合金需求提升,公司有望持續享受行業紅利,業績實現較快增長。 潛在催化劑:特種裝備交付節奏加快;產能建設進展超預期。 盈利預測與估值 我們預計公司2022~2023 年EPS 分別為0.37/0.63 元,CAGR 為25.5%。 公司當前股價對應2023 年28.4 倍市盈率。考慮到公司有望持續享受行業紅利,疊加鎳價回落,未來業績增長確定性較強。我們首次覆蓋給予“跑贏行業”評級,給予目標價23.79 元,對應2023 年38.0x P/E,潛在上行空間34%。 風險 原材料價格波動風險、經濟環境風險、同行業競爭風險。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.