君禾股份(603617):切入新能源負極賽道 高品位礦端構築一體化護城河
主業水泵,經營穩健。君禾股份主業為家用水泵及其配件的研發、設計、製造和銷售,主要產品包括潛水泵、花園泵、噴泉泵及深井泵四大系列產品。下游市場主要來自歐美,海外營收佔比超過95%。2021 年,公司營收9.7 億,歸母淨利0.92 億元。 入股哈工石墨,享有未來並表優先受讓權,邁出新能源石墨負極材料第一步。2022年5 月公司公吿,增資認購哈工石墨20%股份,成為哈工石墨第二大股東,後續在股權上享有優先受讓權,直到持股51%以上。哈工石墨具備採礦、選礦、鱗片石墨加工、高純球形石墨生產一體化佈局。2022-2024 年承諾淨利潤不低於0.9/2/3 億元。 海外多國將天然石墨定調為戰略性資源,哈工石墨手握黑龍江2 個優質石墨礦探礦權,採礦權正逐步落地,品位14.22%高於行業平均水平。從產量和儲量來看,我國均屬於全球天然石墨資源第一梯隊,其中黑龍江為我國石墨礦的戰略高地。 哈工石墨在黑龍江擁有“平安石墨礦”和“密山良種石墨礦”2 座優質石墨礦山,合計擁有上億噸石墨資源礦石量,石墨礦物量儲備800 多萬噸。“平安石墨礦” 平均品位14.22%,行業平均水平在10%左右。目前石墨礦從探測到開採一般需要5-10 年左右的時間,長期的探礦使用費及高技術資格證明為採礦權設置了高進入壁壘。公司手握優質礦端資源,優勢明顯。 高品位礦端一體化佈局,構築產品品類和成本護城河。哈工石墨公司旗下設有5家子公司,定位石墨全產業鏈佈局:(1)國潤礦業,持有平安石墨礦的100%勘探礦權;(2)哈工高碳,石墨礦石的分選提純,已有60 萬噸石墨原礦及5 萬噸石墨精粉產能;(3)哈工新能源,球形石墨的生產及銷售,貝特瑞入股7%:已具備2 萬噸高純球形石墨產能,是國內規模最大的球形石墨工廠之一,主要客户包括貝特瑞等,貝特瑞為國內天然石墨龍頭,下游客户包括特斯拉等巨頭;(4)哈工負極,石墨負極材料的生產與銷售:計劃建設年產1.2 萬噸天然石墨負極材料及1.8 萬噸高純球形石墨生產線;(5)哈工碳基,定位可膨脹石墨及石墨紙的生產及銷售,已具備年產1.2 萬噸可膨脹石墨和年產600 噸石墨紙產能。公司一體化佈局,根據我們測算,選礦自供精粉可以節約2000-3000 元/噸的成本,成本領先。 能耗雙減、工藝升級,天然石墨負極市場不容小覷。目前天然石墨在海外應用較為成熟廣泛,國內市場以人造石墨為主。人造石墨生產能耗高,在國內能耗雙減政策趨勢下,產能緊張加工費高漲。而天然石墨成本低、能量密度高,目前業內有人造天然摻混使用趨勢,天然石墨負極市場不容小覷。 盈利預測:預計公司2022-2024 年實現收入12.2/14.8/17.8 億元,實現歸母淨利潤1.2/1.8/2.5 億元,對應PE 為34.4x/22.7x/16.8x。首次覆蓋,給予“買入”評級。 風險提示:下游需求不及預期;公司採礦探礦權證取得進度不及預期;公司產能建設及投放不及預期;下游技術路徑變化風險;增資具有不確定性。
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