寧德時代(300750):四大創新 三大拐點
高研發造就行業壁壘,產品及技術路徑全面領先。2016 以來,寧德以超高強度研發投入不斷縮小與日韓競爭對手差距,並最終實現全面趕超。2021 年,寧德研發投入約12 億美元,遠超全球同業。公司競爭力及盈利能力有望持續提升。在行業連續發展階段,行業龍頭優勢越來越大,從研發、規模效應、行業上下游看公司驅動力。動力電池行業是資本密集的科技製造行業,寧德資本開支於行業內處於絕對領先地位,2021 年約68 億美元,在手現金流超百億。參考晶圓代工行業資金&技術壁壘高聳,強者恆強格局,我們認為寧德重磅資本開支及充沛現金流將形成正循環,強者愈強。寧德時代強調四大創新:材料體系創新,系統結構創新,極限製造創新,商業模式創新。(1)材料體系:通過打造數字化平台,加速電池新化學體系方面研發進程,提高電池能力密度等一系列電池性能。(2)系統結構:首創CTP 麒麟電池,針對續航、安全性、低温環境等痛點,優化系統;通過結構創新,採用BMS 新算法、AB 電池、鈉離子電池等實現優勢互補,全面覆蓋更多方案。(3)極限製造:安全失效率從ppm 級別下降到ppb 級別,通過製造創新,提高生產效率,打造“TWh”交付能力。(4)商業模式:通過用電場景,構建車電分離下的租購、換電、回收等商業模式,打造電池全生命週期服務閉環。規模化降本優勢,大幅拉大和友商差距。動力電池組價格下降大勢所趨,成本管控重要性日益凸顯。寧德積極擴產,規模效應持續擴大,成本競爭力的根源來自產品超強實力塑造的產業話語權、對上游資源的佈局、與下游共建產能等。對比寧德、LG 化學、三星SDI 營業利潤率,寧德盈利水平持續領先。綜上,我們從格局、產品矩陣、公司經營維度持續展望公司三大拐點。拐點1:行業格局優化。寧德時代麒麟電池發佈為公司新產品發展的里程碑,搶佔行業制高點話語權,隨着創新技術標準陸續推出,公司拉大行業差距;公司新品繼續加大投入,高強度研發投入及高效研發轉換效率有望維持公司持續領先競爭力。拐點2:寧德產品矩陣高中低端全系具備降維競爭能力。公司競爭力及盈利能力有望持續提升,麒麟電池搶佔行業話語權、高端市場盈利能力大幅提升;AB 型解決方案及鈉離子進一步夯實中低端及儲能優勢。拐點3:公司經營拐點,碳酸鋰傳導機制形成及成本優化(公司加大對上游參股控股,保證供應鏈安全),而產品矩陣全系列競爭力提升,營收有望快速成長,毛利率有望持續提升。盈利預測及投資建議:剖析動力電池四大行業屬性,我們持續看好寧德維持電池( 風光電儲核心) 霸主地位, 預計公司2022E/2023E/2024E 營收3301.91/5002.40/7003.36 億元 ;歸母淨利304.57/501.67/751.36 億元,yoy+91.17%/64.72 %/49.77%;對應PE 42.87/26.02 /17.38 x 。維持“買入”評級。風險提示:原材料價格波動及供應短缺,市場競爭加劇,新品及技術開發驗證不及預期。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.