一文綜合大行於恆生(00011.HK)公布業績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
阿思達克 08-02 10:49
恆生銀行(00011.HK)今早股價造淡，盤中曾低見125.2元一度下滑3.8%。高盛發表報告指，中國商業房地產相關信貸風險仍相對較高，或導致恆生今年或需下調每股派息，調低對其今年每股派息預測由5.1元降至4.9元，削其明年每股派息預測由6.6元降至6.5元，重申對其「中性」投資評級，下調目標價由171元降至166元。
恆生銀行昨(1日)午公布今年中期股東應得溢利47.04億元按年下跌46.3%，除稅前溢利54.39億元按年跌47.2%，低於本網早前綜合5間券商介乎55.32億至68.62億元預測；每股盈利減少48%至2.31元。派每股第二次中期息0.7元，去年同期派1.1元；今年上半年每股派息合共為1.4元，去年上半年為每股派2.2元。
恆生上半年扣除預期信貸損失變動及其他信貸減值提撥前之營業收入淨額減少14%，至149.44億元；上半年總營業收入為275.34億元按年增長7.4%，當中淨利息收入增長4%，淨息差為1.42%，按年微跌1個基點；淨利息收益率則升1個基點至1.52%。淨服務費收入減少29%至26.23億元。恆生財務總監梁永樂表示，目前恆生對內地商業房地產的總風險敝口約660億元，民企佔400億元，當中有190億元有抵押品。恆生已作出約40億元的撥備，未來會視乎市場情況，再決定適時增加有關撥備。
【業績遜於預期 關注信貸成本】
摩根士丹利發表報告表示，恆生上半年除稅前溢利按年跌46%；純利符合市場預期，但高過該行預期；淨利息收入優於預期，淨息差上升1個基點至1.52%；非利息收入亦超過該行預期，但較市場預期低20%，主要由於人壽保險及收費疲弱所致。受內地房地產市場影響，信貸損失提撥20.96億元，較該行預期低。恆生派每股第二次中期息0.7元，符合預期。該行予恆生目標價138.9元，評級「減持」。
花旗表示參與了恆生中期業績電話會議，管理層預計在利率上升的背景下淨息差擴張將加快，但對於信貸成本指導缺乏明確性。該行認為恆生信貸成本估計不太可能被下調，下半年的貸款損失率或將維持高位，維持「中性」評級及目標價154元。
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下表列出7間券商對其評級及目標價：
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
瑞銀│買入│178元
高盛│中性│171元->166元
摩根大通│增持│154元
花旗│中性│154元
美銀證券│中性│145元->141.7元
富瑞│持有」│140元
摩根士丹利|減持|138.9元
券商|觀點
瑞銀│上半年盈利符預期，收入較弱，關鍵在於內房風險
高盛│上半年撥備低於預期，非利息收入疲軟，關注內房信貸影響撥備上調
摩根大通│中期業績略遜預期，非利息收入疲弱
花旗│信貸成本指導缺乏明確性
美銀證券│上半年業績遜預期，下半年前景不明朗
富瑞|上半年撥備前利潤低於市場預期
海通國際|非利息和計提拖累營收利潤不及預期
海通國際|非利息和計提拖累營收利潤不及預期
摩根士丹利│淨利息收入勝預期，惟內房市場影響預期信貸損失逾20億元
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