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台華新材(603055):國產己二腈順利投產 上游降價預期增強
本報吿導讀: 中國化學20萬噸/年己二腈項目順利投產,錦綸66切片降價預期增強,有望推動民用錦綸66 纖維需求快速增長。 投資要點: 投資建議:維 持2022-2024 年EPS 分別為0.65/0.91/1.08 元,考慮到公司龍頭地位穩固、成長性較強,給予公司2023 年略高於行業平均的20 倍PE,維持目標價18.2 元,維持“增持”評級。 事件:2022 年7 月31 日,中國化學旗下天辰齊翔的錦綸新材料項目(一期)己二腈裝置順利打通全流程,開車成功併產出己二腈優級產品。該項目在國內首次實現丁二烯法制己二腈的工業化生產,年產能高達20 萬噸。 上游己二腈產能釋放,有望刺激錦綸66 需求增長。錦綸66 性能優越,適用於製作瑜伽服飾及户外服飾。此前,錦綸66 的上游原材料己二腈被海外英威達等公司壟斷,導致國內錦綸66 成本高昂,在民用領域滲透率較低。此次國產己二腈項目的成功投產,打破了錦綸66被國外“卡脖子”的生產瓶頸,未來原材料價格下行有望推動下游需求釋放。 在建產能即將投產,2023 年業績有望顯著增厚。台華新材作為國內民用66 纖維龍頭,先發優勢顯著,6 萬噸錦綸66 纖維項目將於2023Q2 投產,有利於公司搶先佔領市場份額。此外,為響應Nike、Adidas 等國際知名客户對可再生環保方面的需求,公司聯手三聯虹普打造了國內首套萬噸級化學法再生錦綸項目,新增2 萬噸產能將於2023Q2 投產。隨着在建項目投產,2023 年公司業績有望顯著增厚。 風險提示:疫情反覆導致消費需求不及預期
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