華潤萬象生活(1209.HK):業績快速增長 物管併購和商業外拓雙輪驅動
事件 華潤萬象生活發佈正面盈利公吿,2022 上半年未經審計歸母淨利潤同比增長約25%-30%。 簡評 業績實現快速增長。在房地產行業風險暴露、疫情影響社區增值服務開展和增加物業防疫支出等不利因素影響下,預計上半年物業管理行業業績整體降速。我們認為,公司上半年25%-30%的歸母淨利潤增速遠超行業平均水平。 物業收併購和商業項目拓展是業績增長的主要支撐。公司上半年仍取得有韌性增長的主要原因在於:1、物業2 單大額收併購落地。上半年物管新增合約面積1.4 億平,新增在管面積超過9500萬平,分別為2021 年底物管存量合約面積、在管面積的75%、65%。其中,新增1.4 億平合約面積中有1.1 億平來自對禹洲物業和中南物業的收購,新增9500 萬平在管面積中約7000 萬平來自對禹洲物業和中南物業的收購,收併購對上半年公司新增規模的貢獻度較大。此外,公司第三方外拓和母公司交付渠道新增在管面積約2500 萬平,較去年同期基本持平。2、商業項目開業和拓展整體如期進行。公司上半年新開業6 個華潤置地旗下購物中心,其中3 個為重奢項目,除了上海蘇河灣項目因疫情拖累進度,其餘均保持較高開業率。此外,第三方拓展方面新獲取了7 個購物中心輕資產管理項目。展望全年,公司收併購項目並表仍將穩定貢獻業績,下半年預計新開業12 個購物中心也為商管板塊帶來業績支撐。 維持買入評級和目標價66.53 港元不變。我們略下調2022-2024年歸母淨利潤預測至22.8/29.9/38.1 億元(原預測為24.8/33.3/44.3億元)。公司通過積極外拓實現住宅物業的規模快速擴張,同時將繼續領跑商管行業,鑑於公司在商管行業的龍頭地位,我們仍認為公司應享受估值溢價。維持買入評級和目標價66.53 港元不變。 風險提示:併購整合受阻;國內消費疲弱影響在管商業表現。
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