華潤置地(01109.HK):全年減租計劃正式公吿 基本符合市場預期
公司近況 公司於7 月29 日晚公吿2022 年6 月經營情況及全年減租計劃。 評論 公司全年減租預計拖累2022 年核心淨利潤(原中金預測)增速約2-3 百分點。據7 月29 日公吿,公司1H22 整體減租金額已確認17.5 億元,上半年不動產租金收入80.9 億元,同比下降5.9%。我們估計已確認減租金額中購物中心佔比約80%(約14 億元),受減租影響1H22 購物中心租金同比下降4%至64 億元(同店下降14%至55 億元),若加回減租金額,則購物中心1H22 租金約78 億,對應同比增速約17-18%。公司公吿全年維度減租體量22-25 億元,我們預計約佔2022 年租金收入(原中金預測)的11-12%,假設租金相關業務淨利潤率約35%,則減租對全年核心淨利潤(原中金預測)增速拖累約2-3 百分點。 購物中心板塊零售額五月已開啟疫後回暖,下半年復甦進程值得關注。公司1H22 購物中心零售額542 億元,同比+7%(同店-4%)。2022 年5-6 月公司零售額已呈現明顯反彈趨勢,我們估計5-6 月公司單月零售額修復至94 億元和99 億元,對應同比增速約2%和26%(同店-11%和11%),其中重奢商場零售額修復趨勢尤為明顯(5 月零售額同比降幅估計收窄至-6%,6 月零售額同比回正至17%)。若下半年疫情干擾消減、同店表現漸回正軌,我們預計全年維度購物中心零售額同店仍有望實現正增長,支撐公司全年租金表現。除此之外,公司在南寧、武漢、瀋陽、福州、海口等地的購物中心已於上半年如期開業,我們預計全年維度除上海蘇河灣項目或推遲開業外,其餘項目新開業均有望按計劃推進,進一步增補租金。 盈利預測與估值 維持1H22 核心淨利潤預測不變(同比+2%至101.1 億元)。考慮減租影響,下修今明兩年全年租金預測,下調2022/2023 年核心淨利潤3%/4%至279.4/293.3 億元(對應同比增長5%/5%,暫未考慮疫後復甦可能帶來的業績提振及回補)。當前股價交易於7.2/6.8 倍2022/2023 年市盈率。我們認為公司所處的中高端購物中心賽道前景與公司自身業務優勢並未發生趨勢性變化,且現階段單月零售額表現已展現出底部復甦趨勢,因此我們維持跑贏行業評級與目標價45.19 港元不變,對應9.8/9.4 倍2022/2023 年市盈率和38%的上行空間。 風險 購物中心疫後復甦程度不及預期;行業基本面恢復程度不及預期。
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