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植耀輝: 美股續升納指升1% 港股後市陷膠著
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美國連續兩季出現負增長,反映當地或已出現衰退;投資者憧憬聯儲局加息步伐將減慢,隔晚(28日)美股不跌反升,三大指數均有不俗表現,當中道指上升332點或1%,收報32,529點,標普及納指升幅亦超過1%。美股近期似憧憬未來業績改善為由炒上,科技股在議息後表現更有點兒過度亢奮,要留意急升後會否無以為繼。 至於港股走勢依然未見起色,昨日微跌47點,成交量亦只得901億元。整個市況仍呈好淡膠著狀態,但這亦無可奈何,皆因困擾市場之變數多且複雜,單是內房問題如何/何時能解決已令大家頭痛,尚未計其他如中美關係及本地息口等因素。所以港股短期將繼續「無運行」矣! 至於阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)申請港美雙重主要上市的消息,市場似乎相當受落,惟對股價刺激作用未必太持久,始終申請雙重上市較第二上市繁複得多(嗶哩嗶哩-SW(09626.HK)今年三月中宣布申請雙重上市,五月初獲批,到10月初才正式生效),更遑論北水掃貨之憧憬。不過此舉卻似乎對港交所(00388.HK)有利,因預期未來會有更多公司跟隨阿里步伐,但亦重申即使有此利好理由,惟短期亦不會對大市交投或氣氛有太大改善,故亦無須急追,待回落至340至350元附近再作部署也不遲。 (筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份) ******** 恆指缺乏催化劑的情況下仍會於近兩周區間上落爭持 耀才證券研究部團隊稱,隔晚(28日)美股連升兩日,市場繼續消化鮑威爾於會後聲明較為鴿派的言論,三大指數全線收升逾1%。不過,美國第二季GDP跌0.9%,遜於預期的增長0.5%。同時,美國已出現連續兩季GDP下跌的情況,陷入技術性衰退。中美元首結束通話,當中較為受報道的為台海問題,沒有提及到關稅及貿易合作,對股市的提振作用不大。金龍中國指數跌1.2%,北水昨日亦出現七天以來首次的淨流出,客觀因素均屬於利淡,恆指缺乏催化劑的情況下仍會於近兩周的區間上落爭持。 技術上,恆指於6月低點亦即20,697點爭持,成交額持續低於1,000億元,RSI持續於50水平以下,暫時屬於在20,500至20,900之間收窄橫行的型態,不過MACD熊差距有所收窄,可以等待牛信號出現再進行建倉。 (筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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