綠城管理(09979.HK):現房銷售房企成本將提升至每平方米2,000人幣或以上
《澎湃新聞》報道,綠城管理(09979.HK)董事會主席郭佳峰表示,儘管中國政府出台許多紓困及支持等政策,但是在落地端並不明顯;消費端大家的信心欠缺。目前的房地產市場銷售呈現L形走勢,橫端的長短要看整個宏觀形勢和國家的整體變化,再往下的可能性也不大。至於有機構認為房企下半年遇償債高峰等問題,會加劇房企出險,有關可能性整體不大。
對於目前的預售制和現房銷售問題,他認為房地產開發商是政府的批發商,利潤基本是平的。如果地價是每平方米1萬元人民幣(下同),房價在每平方米1.8萬至1.9萬元,在現有預售制度下,房地產開發商的利息成本大約在800至1,000元。其他不變的情況下,如果轉入現房銷售環節,房地產開發商的利息成本要提升至2,000元左右甚至更多。
他指出,現房銷售需要金融的背景,房地產開發商的利息成本降低至約2%,這樣利息成本降至200至300元,也可以實現現房銷售。
至於未來現房銷售的趨勢,他料可能傾向於澳洲等西方模式,即土地銷售階段就可以有金融參與進來;如果現在開發商又要支付土地款又要進行現房銷售,市場規模會馬上壓縮,一個可以做20個項目的房企,現房銷售只能做到4至5個項目。
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