華利集團(300979)公司點評：Q2增長提速 全年訂單需求良好
格隆匯 07-28 00:00
公司發佈中期業績預吿，2022H1 收入+21%/業績+21%。據公司公吿：1 ） 2022H1 公司收入/ 業績/ 扣非業績分別增長21%/21%/18%至99.0/15.6/15.3 億元。2）剔除匯率變動影響後，上半年公司收入/業績均增長20%，符合預期。3）量價拆分來看，2022H1 銷量1.15 億雙，同比增長13%；我們估算平均單價同比增長中高單位數。2022Q2 收入+29%/業績+28%，同比增速相較Q1 提升。1）單二季度來看，Q2 公司收入/業績分別增長29%/28%至55.7/9.1 億元。2）量價拆分來看：我們估算Q2 銷量增長19%左右/單價同比增長高單位數。3）盈利質量回升。上半年客户訂單需求旺盛，越南疫情對公司工廠生產影響逐步緩解，單Q2 毛利率相較Q1 有小幅回升。訂單：客户結構質量高，據我們跟蹤當前訂單需求保持良好。1）公司客户結構集中，核心客户包括Nike、VF、Deckers、Puma、UA 等，2021 年/2022Q1公司向前五大客户銷售合計佔比均在92%左右。2）我們跟蹤行業情況並根據公司與客户合作情況判斷，2022H2 公司訂單仍然有望保持飽滿狀態。3）在深化與頭部客户的合作關係的同時，公司積極推進與新客户如On、Asics、NewBalance 等品牌的合作，我們判斷未來新客户銷售有望快速增長。產能：生產運營正常，產能擴建持續、未來有望快速放量。1）當前生產運營狀態正常。據公司公吿，年初越南北部疫情反覆，2 月公司員工出勤率受到一定影響，3 月中旬以來已經恢復正常。2）產能大規模建設順利推進、有望陸續接力放量。據公司公吿，①於2021 年投產的3 個越南新工廠產能爬坡迅速、2022 年有望貢獻放量。②同時基於客户預期訂單的強勁需求，公司將繼續在越南北部新建工廠，並在印尼建設基地、分散產能佈局，印尼一期工廠預計2023 年對產能做出有效貢獻。全年有望穩健增長20%左右。1）我們判斷下半年公司訂單穩定性好於行業、產能利用率飽和。2）據我們跟蹤，公司產能大規模建設推進、有望持續放量，2022 全年產能規模有望同比增長中雙位數。3）展望全年，我們綜合估算2022 全年公司收入/業績均有望增長20%左右。投資建議。公司是運動產業鏈製造龍頭公司，產能持續放量，長期看伴隨客户訂單資源傾斜，業績有望快速增長。考慮未來訂單需求情況，我們略調整盈利預測，預計2022-2024 年公司歸母淨利潤分別為33.8/40.9/49.3 億元，當前股價為63.45 元，對應2022 年PE 為22 倍，維持“買入”評級。風險提示：疫情反覆影響海外訂單；產能擴張、產線改造不及預期；大客户訂單波動風險；外匯波動風險。
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
More Content
CS Hotline: +852 3018 4526
Trading days: 24 hours | Non-trading days: 9:00-18:00
