中銀國際:重申買入JS環球生活(1691.HK),預計仍應跑贏同行
中銀國際發表研究報吿,表示考慮到同行的表現,中銀國際認為JS環球生活(JSGL)面臨的壓力比我們今年年初預期的要大。不利因素主要來自消費者情緒。儘管如此,中銀國際預計2022年下半年將成為JSGL的亮點,因為它將推出更多新產品。它最近在亞馬遜日Prime Day的表現應該是其競爭力的一個很好的指標。考慮到目前的估值,中銀國際重申買入。
中銀國際認為,由於宏觀逆風,同行在2022年上半年中面臨挑戰。該行使用Groupe SEB(SK FP/EUR83.70,NR)的2022年上半年表現作為JSGL的參考。該行認為JSGL也可能面臨這些宏觀經濟環境惡化問題,因此該行預計JSGL的2022年上半年收入也可能下降低個位數,而2022年上半年的淨利潤可能會下降高個位數。儘管如此,SEB對2022年下半年並沒有那麼悲觀,因為它的前景意味着環比銷售的改善。我們相信它也適用於JSGL,我們也期望JSGL在西歐的表現會更好。我們預計JSGL的表現應該超過SEB,因為它通過Ninja和Shark品牌在歐洲,特別是法國和德國的快速擴張。JSGL搶佔的市場份額應該能夠解釋為什麼SEB面臨壓力。進入2022年下半年,中銀國際預計JSGL在發達國家市場對比上半年應該會表現得更好。作為一個好跡象,表明該公司應該從破紀錄的亞馬遜日Prime Day中受益,它已經推出了多種新產品,這些產品應該會佔據更多的市場份額。
中銀國際下調了2022/23/24年度每股收益,以反映在通脹環境下由於消費能力減弱而導致的銷售疲軟。儘管如此,中銀國際預計JSGL仍應跑贏同行,其估值(2023年市盈率為個位數)要求不高。我們的目標價根據12倍2023年市盈率(不變)調整至13.9港元。
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