《大行報告》摩通:蒙牛(02319.HK)股價過分調整 建議業績前加倉
摩根大通發表研究報告指,蒙牛乳業(02319.HK)股價過去兩個交易日累跌5%,表現遜於主要競爭對手伊利(600887.SH)及同期國指。而過去三個月,蒙牛股價已下跌13.3%,遠遜於伊利的跌3.3%,以及同期國指上升4.9%。
該行預測蒙牛上半年銷售額將按年增長3.2%,純利料按年跌5.2%,分別較市場預期低2%及7%;經調整盈利則預期增長2%。相比之下,撇除澳優(01717.HK)的貢獻,伊利上半年核心銷售額及盈利料按年增長10.7%及8.3%。
對於全年預測,摩通預期蒙牛今年銷售額將增長11.3%,列賬純利增長7.5%,利潤率下降20個基點,經調整後盈利料增長15%,並預期管理層或於中期業績會下調全年增長目標。摩通認為伊利上半年業績有可能低於市場預期,亦有機會調低2022年全年增長指引。
考慮到股價已過度調整,摩通認為蒙牛現時的風險回報吸引,建議投資者於業績前加倉,於內地乳業股中維持看好伊利及蒙牛,同予「增持」評級,認為業務應持續改善。
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