中信建投首次深度覆蓋聯想集團(0992.HK)：服務器業務發展向好
中信建投證券7月26日發佈深度研報，首次覆蓋聯想集團(0992.HK)。研報指出，聯想集團PC業務保持全球領先，服務器業務發展向好。
中信建投分析認為，受疫情影響，混合辦公模式將長期存在，推動全球PC需求顯著提升。自2020年初疫情在全球蔓延以來，遠程辦公、在線教育、休閒娛樂等需求使全球PC出貨量明顯上行，由疫情前的全年出貨約2.5億台至目前全年出貨約3.5億台。個人電腦在日常生活中地位提升，逐步向“一人一台”推進，在此趨勢下，國內不足3成的電腦滲透率有較大提升空間。聯想集團作為全球PC出貨量第一的廠商，有望受益疫情後需求釋放。
研報還指出：國內雲廠商資本開支逐步回暖，該公司在雲服務、邊緣計算業務上積極佈局，已覆蓋國內頭部互聯網客户，未來有望進軍政企客户。聯想集團ISG部門或將迎來較高速增長，預計2023-2025財年ISG業務收入增速為20%、20%、15%。
服務業務在硬件增速的基礎之上，疊加DaaS和解決方案收入的快速增長，各項細分業務具備較大市場空間，收購電訊盈科IT解決方案業務將帶來SSG部門營收10%以上增長，預計SSG部門2023-2025財年收入增速為25%、25%、20%。
同時，聯想集團規模效應顯現，管理費用率逐步下降，研發費用三年內投入翻倍，2023財年因收購電訊盈科IT方案業務略微提升公司財務費用，預計2023-2025財年期間費用率分別為12.9%、12.9%、12.8%。其中研發費用率分別為3.5%、4.2%、4.7%。
聯想集團SSG業務毛利率高，營收佔比有望進一步提升；此外IDG業務中高附加值遊戲本、工作站收入增速有望高於傳統PC；ISG業務將繼續提升盈利水平，預計聯想集團2023-2025財年毛利率分別為17.0%、17.2%、17.4%。
綜合以上假設，預計聯想集團2022-2024財年營業收入為768億美元、821億美元、877億美元，歸母淨利潤為24.1億美元、26.3億美元、29.6億美元，當前股價7.36港元，對應市盈率分別為4.5、4.2、3.7倍，參考全球可比硬件公司戴爾、惠普2022年5.5倍PE的估值水平及公司自身智能化轉型的成長性，給予聯想集團FY20236xPE，9.4港元/股的目標價，對應目標市值1420億港元，給予“買入”評級。
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