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比音勒芬(002832)公司點評:產品升級 快速成長
格隆匯 07-26 00:00
短期:流水錶現強勁,全年預計穩健增長。1)近期流水強勁:據我們跟蹤,6-7 月隨着疫情趨穩,公司終端流水高速增長。2)2022Q2 疫情下表現優於行業平均水平: 4-5 月疫情下機場、高鐵門店有所影響,但是公司私域流量維護有效、客羣粘性高,加之6 月恢復迅速,我們判斷公司運營穩健,持續領跑行業。3)訂貨會進行中:按過往經驗,公司提前半年訂貨,2023 年春夏訂貨會進行中,我們認為新品推出及近期終端的優異表現有望推動加盟商信心。4)全年業績有望快速增長:渠道外延×店效優化貢獻,我們預計2022 年公司業績有望實現接近30%增長。 中期:渠道快速成長,運營提效。公司當前渠道仍在快速成長拓寬階段,注重打造消費者高粘性的全渠道流量運營:1)線下:公司佈局高端百貨、機場高鐵、高爾夫球場等多樣特色渠道,店數擴張,店效提升。①店數:以加盟模式拓展三四線城市中高端消費市場,我們預計2022 年開店有望加速、全年有望淨開180 家左右(截至2021 末公司門店1100 家,直營532 家/加盟568 家)。其中奧萊店(我們估算佔整體渠道數量10%左右)消化能力好、利潤空間充足(奧萊折扣在4-6 折),我們判斷在有效創造利潤的同時對品牌調性影響小。②店效:注重運營提效,銷售培訓及考核激勵體系完善,疊加品牌力提升、產品推新驅動終端,我們判斷店效有望持續提升。2)線上: 積極探索新零售、將VIP 引流線上,2021 年內VIP 人數突破70 萬。 長期:定位差異化,品牌高端化,牢抓消費者核心訴求。比音勒芬卡位細分高爾夫休閒賽道,精準把握高粘性、低價格敏感度的中高端商務羣體需求,圍繞着“生活高爾夫”這一差異化特色,從產品和營銷等層面建立獨特優勢。 產品戰略升級,高爾夫運動系列單獨開店:①聚焦核心品類,深挖“T 恤小專家” 品牌定位,打造爆品“小領T”。②高爾夫系列2022 年進行獨立開店(我們預計全年嘗試性開設數十家),深化專業高端運動品牌形象。③商務生活系列品質迭代,推出功能性面料產品如Anti Bacterial 抗菌纖維、X-STATIC 銀纖維等系列匹配高端消費需求;④時尚系列故宮宮廷文化IP 系列、蘇繡非遺傳承人合作系列推出並進行迭代,打造高端國潮,為品牌年輕化賦能。 營銷資源優渥,契合品牌定位:賽事傳播、事件推廣、明星代言多管齊下。包括: ①在線下機場、高爾夫門店覆蓋高端消費羣體的同時,線上藉助微信、小紅書等新興渠道增加曝光。②贊助國家隊征戰2021 東京奧運會、並相約2024 巴黎奧運會,打造品牌專業形象和辨識度;③通過權威媒體包括CCTV-1、高鐵廣吿營銷傳播,建立品牌公信力; 投資建議。公司具備差異化品牌優勢,在確定性高、增速可觀的業績預期下,我們認為當下估值具備強吸引力:我們預計2022~2024 年公司歸母淨利潤8.0/10.0/12.6 億元,當前市值123 億元,對應2022 年PE 為15 倍;目標市值194 億,對應2022 年PE 為24 倍,維持“買入”評級。 風險提示:疫情持續超預期;宏觀經濟疲軟;威尼斯品牌孵化不達預期;運動休閒消費市場景氣度回落。
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