《大行報告》中金:地方政府「保交樓」政策執行力度加大 料購房者情緒有望逐漸修復
內房股今早(25日)股價彈高。中金發表報告表示,內地房地產景氣指數按周小幅回升(錄得99.23,前值99.15),主因集中土拍下,供給修復略有加速(錄得99.39,前值99.15),需求量縮價升趨勢延續(錄得99.64,前值99.28),但停貸帶來局地觀望情緒,融資略有下 降(錄得98.66,前值99.03)。
該行指,內房行業截至7月16至22日內地30城銷售面積按年跌幅31.06%,較前一周收窄8.16個百分點,7月11至17日銷售均價按年增速14.8%,較前一周加快3.13個百分點。值得注意的是,2022年6月底以來,停貸風波引發房市銷售觀望情緒。這體現在以下兩點,第一是高線與低線銷售差距拉大:停貸風波主要發生在弱二線和三、四線,7月初以來一線城市銷售面積按年大幅反彈,第二是國央企項目受青睞,部分需求流入二手房。
克爾瑞的數據顯示,7月11日至17日,30個涉及停貸的重點城市新房成交按周跌41%(前值12%),新開盤項目去化率、轉化率降至23%、19%(前期高點分別為54%、38%),反映居民對購買新房態度謹慎。多重因素作用下,一部分購房者重新觀望,或選擇確定性強的項目(同期國央企新開盤項目平均轉化率已升至29%,較6月末上升),或選擇購買二手房。
中金指,各地地方政府「保交樓」政策執行力度加大,「一樓一策」全力推進復工。從地方看,保交樓方案強調市場化法制化,調動政府、房企、國企、金融機構各方的積極性推進債務化解、存量資產盤活、增加現金流。具體方案包括第一是政府回購地塊,收購部分未動工土地,返還房企土地款用於保交樓,如江西贛州綠地博覽 城項目;第二是成立紓困基金,以強信用的新主體(國企等)來撬動金融槓桿,通過資產處置、資源整合、重組顧問等方式;第三是實控人提供資產以獲得新的抵押貸款,如河南鄭州名門翠園;第四是以第三方房企開發代建,通過品牌換新、信用重構來激活銷售,如廣州奧園雲和公館;第五是破產復工續建,如河南鄭州澳龍港灣、御景豪園、麗景花園項目。
往前看,該行指在各地、各方積極保交樓的努力下,如果「停貸風波」逐漸平息,購房者情緒有望逐漸修復。
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