克明食品(002661):品類拓展結構優化 麪條龍頭踏步前行
近四十載奮力拼搏,克明食品拾級而上。克明食品是國內掛麪行業特別是中高端掛麪領域龍頭企業,成立以來已有近40 年的發展歷史;2017 年公司收購五穀道場,入局方便食品領域。公司為家族控股企業,股權較為穩定;2022 年6 月公吿定增預案,陳宏等人的持股比例有望進一步上升,新老交接穩步推進。公司前期推出員工持股計劃,有助於提升公司經營活力。公司業務以麪條為主,主要定位中高端;麪粉業務主要用於自供,多餘量對外出售;方便食品以五穀道場為核心,同時也包括濕面業務等。公司營收穩定增長,2021 年達43.3 億元,15-21CAGR+15%。掛麪行業集中度提升,多元化需求引領擴容。2021 年,我國掛麪行業規模達到約700 億元;傳統掛麪定位於30 歲及以上人羣以及低收入人羣,受益老齡化及城鎮化趨勢,預計行業仍有增量空間。順應差異化消費需求,行業發展多元化產品,例如兒童面、鮮濕面等,有望改善產品結構,推動價格提升。競爭格局方面,2021 年掛麪行業的超市綜合權數中,陳克明以19.2%的份額領先。伴隨原材料價格上漲帶來的成本壓力,且食品安全監管趨嚴,大批小企業迅速出清,大型企業依靠品牌、資本、技術優勢提升份額,行業集中度提升。方便食品行業規模近5000 億,市場空間大;在健康化趨勢下,非油炸產品等逐步發展,方便食品格局有望重塑。產品結構逐步優化,方便食品新品迭出。拆分量價,2013 年-2021 年,公司麪條業務增長主要依賴於量增,2021 年底公司再次對產品進行提價,預計將推動公司麪條進入量價齊升的區間。經營策略上,公司將經營重心從高性價比產品轉向高毛利產品,包括高端掛麪、方便食品等;同時,公司推動麪條和麪粉產能擴張,麪粉自給率提升,有助於改善公司綜合毛利率水平。邊際上,小麥價格有下降趨勢,有助於降低公司生產成本。公司持續加碼方便食品業務,推出多款新品,包括熟濕面、自熱米飯等,有望推動方便食品業務加速發展。公司持續強化全國化市場佈局,推動渠道深入佈局至鄉鎮級市場;營銷層面加大廣吿投入,助力品牌形象提升。我們預測公司22-24 年的每股收益分別為0.50、0.58 和0.70 元。我們選取A 股和H股的米麪糧油、方便食品上市公司作為可比公司,根據可比公司調整後平均估值水平,給予公司22 年28 倍PE,對應目標價14.00 元,首次覆蓋給予買入評級。風險提示:競爭加劇的風險、原材料成本大幅上漲的風險、方便食品發展不及預期的風險、銷量增長不及預期導致產能利用率不足的風險。
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