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《即日市評》恆指本周累升311點 水泥股今捱沽
港股今日反覆造好。大型科技股上揚,美股道指及納指昨各升0.5%及1.4%;執筆之時美國十年期國債孳息率跌至2.822厘,美匯指數處107.11,美股道指期貨最新跌20點或0.06%,納指期貨最新跌0.57%,摩通亞洲區貨幣指數跌至101.49。據《新華社》報道,國家主席習近平致電美國總統拜登,就拜登總統感染新冠病毒致以慰問。人民幣即期收跌23點報6.7657兌一美元,上證綜指今日跌2點或0.06%收3,269點,深證成指跌0.49%,滬深兩市成交額共9,414億人民幣。 恆指今早高開142點,早段曾升213點一度高見20,788點,其後升幅收窄,午後曾倒跌60點一度低見20,513點,全日升34點或0.17%,收20,609點;國指升7點或0.1%,收7,106點;恆生科技指數升15點或0.33%,收4,597點。大市全日成交總額降至851.47億元,滬、深港通南下交易分別淨流入5.89億及10.4億元人民幣。澳門財政司稱下月啟動首個百億經濟援助,另動用百億撐「後清零」復甦,金沙中國(01928.HK)升3.8%。 恆指本周累升311點或1.5%、國指本周累升148點或2.1%、恆生科指本周累升157點或3.5%。市場關注美聯儲局未來加息步伐及中美兩國關係發展等。 【濠賭股造好 快手有支持】 科網股走個別,騰訊(00700.HK)跌0.6%報332元,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)升近0.1%,而快手(01024.HK)股價上揚3.3%收85.1元。摩根士丹利發表報告指,快手6月份電商GMV恢復至按年增長逾30%,增長勢頭於7月初進一步加快,反映疫情封城因素已不再影響其營運,因此上調今年全年收入及利潤預測,預期下半年業務增長將加快。 大摩預測,快手今年第二季整體收入將按年增長9%至210億元人民幣,當中廣告、電商及直播業務預期分別增長8%、2%及13%。該行並預期非國際會計準則下淨虧損預期達到30億元人民幣,按年收窄36%,較市場預期少6%。大摩估計快手第二季每日活躍用戶數量將按年增長18%,達到3.46億戶,增長速度較首季的17%加快,預期7月份增長趨勢將持續強勁,令快手與抖音的差距進一步收窄。 【市寬略改善 水泥股捱沽】 港股今日市寬略改善,主板股票升跌比率為17比20(上日為14比24);恆指成份股今日34隻股份上升,下跌股份31隻,升跌比率為49比45(上日為22比78)。大市今日錄沽空148.09億元,佔可沽空股份成交額708.91億元的20.89%(上日為19.448%)。 水泥股向下,海螺水泥(00914.HK)及中建材(03323.HK)各挫近5.3%及7.4%,華潤水泥(01313.HK)跌近4.5%。摩根大通發表報告指,疫情及樓市下行導致水泥需求疲軟,加上煤炭價格高企令每噸水泥毛利空間減少,以及市場對價格戰的擔憂,令年初至今中國水泥股累計下跌14%,跌幅高於同期恆生國企指數表現。 踏入7月中旬,該行表示出貨量和價格數據仍然令人失望,考慮到季節性因素,預計近期需求不會出現反彈。展望未來,摩通認為利好政策預期及企業的積極管理仍不足以推動股價回升,估計只有出貨量數據出現實際改善的情況下,市場才會對行業進行重新評估。該行將內地水泥股2022至2023年盈利預測普遍下調13%至52%,目標價普遍下調5%至15%。
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