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大行先後看淡水泥股 潤泥、海螺水泥及中建材挫逾4%-7% 海螺創近五年低
恆指及國指繼今早高見20,788及7,190無以為繼後,午後倒跌分別低見20,513及7,075,現報20,566及7,098,倒跌8點及1點,總成交額594億元。 麥格理及摩通本周先後下調水泥股目標價,相關股今天明顯跑輸,尤其是本周初遭麥格理納入沽售名彈的海螺水泥(00914.HK)四連跌,今天股價失守上月所創52周低位31.75元,最低見31.15元,創近五年低,現報31.25元,續挫6.2%,成交增至1,044萬股。 華潤水泥(01313.HK)兩連跌,今天股價再度考驗上月中旬所創四年半低位4.9元,暫時守穩,現報4.91元,續跌4.5%,成交增至1,080萬股。中國建材(03323.HK)終止四連升,股價低見7.71元創逾四個月低,現報7.77元,挫7.3%,成交增至5,338萬股。然而,西部水泥(02233.HK)逆升2.2%報0.92元,成交增至1,425萬股。 摩通最新指,疫情及樓市下行導致內地水泥需求疲軟,加上煤炭價格高企令每噸水泥毛利空間降及市場對價格戰擔憂,令年初至今內地水泥股累跌14%,跌幅高於同期國指表現。此外,踏入7月中旬,水泥出貨量和價格數據仍令人失望,考慮到季節性因素,該行預計近期需求不會出現反彈。假設內地沒有再實施封城措施,預期復甦將於今年末季才會出現。因此,該行將水泥股今明兩年盈測普遍下調13%-52%,目標價普遍削5%-15%,最新給予中建材、海螺水泥及華潤水泥目標價13元、46元及6元。 麥格理本周初率先指,截至7月14日止內地買家拒付房貸事件已蔓延至超過230個項目,涉及逾20個地區。此外,即使在「斷供」事件發生前,本月首星期30大重點城市合約銷售額已按年下跌44%,認為內地房地產市場去產能負面結構性影響被低估,或將導致水泥產能過剩的時間延長,加上每噸水泥毛利已降至39元人民幣,低於2015-2016年所創歷史低位,故調低海螺水泥及華潤水泥未來三年盈測18%/9%/10%及20%/15%/11%,目標價分別削近11%及17%,至分別25元及4.23元,評級均為「跑輸大市」,且將海螺水泥納入該行沽售名單。
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