《大行報告》摩通料港匯下半年大部分時間於7.85附近徘徊 估末季三個月拆息升至2.93厘
摩根大通發表研究報告,港匯下半年大部分時間於7.85兌一美元左右徘徊,明年小幅反彈,本港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)料將跟隨LIBOR上升,惟升勢有所滯後,預料今年第四季,三個月HIBOR將升至2.93厘。
摩通表示,部分投資者認為,在這個週期中,銀行體系總結餘下降得更快,意味著HIBOR需要高於LIBOR實現匯率穩定,該行不同意這個觀點,從2022年第一季起本港銀行體系總結餘約3,400億港元,規模已很大,美國本次加息週期來得更快,而HIBOR追貼LIBOR的速度較慢,即使銀行體系結餘跌至接近零,這不是令HIBOR高過HIBOR的充分條件。
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