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《大行報告》高盛:若大多數民營內房未能交付物業 料2.4萬億人幣按揭貸款存風險 但系統性風險可避免
阿思達克 07-22 12:11
高盛最新發表報告表示,就市場關注內房發展商「爛尾樓」所造成違約風險,指截至7月13日止內地63個城市中有150個已出售但未完工項目被指存在交割風險(該行稱撰寫報告時已升至300個),導致購房者拒償還貸款,該行相關行業研究團隊按量化風險敞口和對內地銀行系統的潛在影響進行評估,由於中國家庭貸存比率處65%的健康水平及內地6月份零售存款增長強勁,認為核心問題是物業買家履行抵押貸款義務的意願,而非其償還貸款的能力。 該行的內銀行業分析師團隊估計,上述項目相關的未償還抵押貸款可能達到4,000億元人民幣,約佔中國今年首季度未償還抵押貸款總額39萬億人民幣的1%。 該行亦指相關評估屬靜態,按內地排名首100位的民營企業物業開發商(佔2018年至2021年全國房地產銷售的35%,截至2021年佔在建項目的34%)目前正面臨流動性/再融資風險,該行估計這些開發商合計佔未償還抵押貸款約9%、佔全系統貸款賬簿約2%。高盛中國房地產團隊的估計,如果這些開發商中的大多數未能交付其預售物業,料潛在約有2萬至2.4萬億人民幣的抵押按揭貸款可能會面臨風險,在這種情況下,即使不考慮對房地產市場情緒和其他宏觀增長渠道的連鎖反應,該行認為潛在的壞賬或可能會給商業銀行帶來資產質素問題和資本重組風險。 高盛指在宏觀層面上,長期以來一直認為中國的住宅房地產「大而不能倒」,本質上屬決策者的兩難式(即通過房地產促進增長與通過房地產去槓桿化降低系統性風險)。中國房地產市場與GDP的20%左右直接或間接相關,約佔家庭資產配置的60%,根據該行自上而下的估計,名義價值為60萬億美元。 隨著內地房地產市場放緩,影響滲透到內地銀行的抵押貸款償還和資產質素風險中,並可能在不久的將來抑制房地產需求,高盛決定對內房今年下半年新屋開工最新預測向下修訂(從降25%下修至降33%),進一步將內房企業2022年每股盈利增長預測從4%下調至0%。 該行指﹐仍然認為內地房地產市場低迷帶來的系統性風險是可以避免的,考慮到廣泛的流動性指標、和在岸信貸壓力指標表明,指房地產市場的有效槓桿(LTV)較低(估計約為40%),而中國政府對其銀行體系擁有強大控制權的制度設置使得市場驅動的、料無序的平倉不太可能發生;而當局似乎正在評估形勢並開始採取行動。
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