青島啤酒(600600)：激勵順利推進 助力高端轉型
格隆匯 07-21 00:00
事件簡述：公司A 股限制性股票激勵計劃首次授予限制性股票第一個解除限售期將於2022 年7 月25 日屆滿，本次共有619 名激勵對象符合解除限售條件，可解鎖限售的限制性股票數量4,359,428 股，佔解除前公司總股本0.32%，本次變動後有限售條件的流通A 股減少至9,012,570 股，佔公司總股本48.37%。 我們認為，公司股權激勵計劃有以下兩個亮點： 對業績要求較為寬鬆。從公司股權激勵計劃的三個核心解除限售條件來看，以2020 年為例，公司實際ROE 為11.59%、超過考核值8.1%，而公司2019 年ROE（攤薄）已經為9.66%；2020 年淨利潤較2016-2018年淨利潤均值增長84.86%，超過了增長率考核目標（50%）；2020 年淨利潤較2016-2018 年均值增加10.55 億元，高於對標企業淨利潤增長量之和。 更多是綁定核心管理人員、分享業績增長。從股權計劃的激勵對象結構來看，共有619 名激勵對象符合解除限售條件，除了9 名高管人員，剩下的610 名激勵對象為公司的核心管理人員、中層管理人員和核心骨幹人員，已獲授予限制性股票數量為1209.8 萬股，佔總授予股票數量90.47%，可見股權激勵計劃是希望穩定核心管理人員、保證產品結構升級公司戰略落地實施。從授予價格來看，2022 年7 月20 日收盤價95.56 元是授予價格21.18 元的4.5 倍，激勵對象成功分享了公司業績的增長過程。 投資建議：高端化勢頭正盛，利潤彈性加速釋放。公司是首家出台股權激勵計劃的啤酒企業，股權激勵的落地不僅鎖定高層、同時保證中層管理人員的穩定性，確保“品牌引領、創新驅動、質量第一、效益優先、結構優化、協調發展”六大戰略指引落地。在穩定的管理層下，六大戰略指引將會落實到山東和華北市場產品結構升級加速+費效比降低，由此釋放的利潤彈性有望超出市場預期。我們預計2022-2024 年營收CAGR 為6.4%，歸母淨利潤CAGR 為20.8%，EPS 分別為2.41/2.85/3.49 元，對應2022年7 月20 日收盤價（95.56 元/股）PE40/34/27 倍，維持“買入”評級。 股價催化劑：復工復產後現飲渠道動銷恢復進度、消費旺季主品牌銷量增速超出預期、區域市場提價、沿黃市場成長性超出預期?風險因素：疫情反覆、高端啤酒競爭加劇、原材料價格上漲
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