泡泡瑪特(09992.HK):業績短期受疫情擾動 下半年有望邊際向好
事項:公司發佈業績預警公吿,預計2022 年上半年收入較去年同期增長不低於30%,溢利較去年同期減少不高於35%。評論:高線城市線下業務受擾,物流受阻亦影響線上銷售。上半年疫情擾動下,部分區域線下門店和機器人商店運營受阻,且店鋪主要分佈於高線城市,疊加物流受阻亦影響線上業務銷售,客流量及消費意願減弱下業績增速下滑。分運營渠道看,微信渠道Q2 略有下滑但7 月已實現同比轉正;天貓渠道Q2 同比下行或系公司將618 重心置於微信渠道;機器人商店作為探針業務模式增速參考度相對有限,7 月經營處改善區間。22H1 淨利率下行,主要系毛利及費用端衝擊所致。毛利端:成本上升+促銷活動。成本上升:1)產品工藝複雜度提升:22 年上新產品設計複雜度提升且配件增加下,拆件數和油色數均大幅提升,且部分系列採用手感漆、精密水貼等新工藝,導致生產成本提升;2)採購成本上升:21H2 工廠端原材料價格及人工費用處高位,疊加成本體現略有滯後下,上半年毛利受擾,預計H2 該部分成本有望下行;3)模具數量增加:受前述工藝複雜度及拆件數量影響,模具總數增加,模具費用同比明顯提升。促銷活動:受疫情影響上半年在天貓和抽盒機渠道均開展促銷,亦對毛利水平造成一定影響。費用端:1)門店費用:受疫情影響,北京上海均出現短期閉店,且部分門店廣吿宣傳和物流倉儲費用略有提升下,投入難以獲得對應收益,導致門店費用提升;2)新業務籌備,與員工數量薪酬提升亦導致費用率提升。下半年國內拓店或放緩,新增長極出海業務進展穩健。受Q2 疫情擾動,下半年拓店速度將放緩,預計開店數量或與上半年基本持平,亦將有部分移位調整門店;同店方面,上半年杭州成都青島等新一線城市老店同比增長,且部分區域增速表現亮眼,以及次線城市疫情恢復速度較快下,可部分對沖北上門店影響。海外業務方面,疫情管控放鬆下門店恢復情況良好,短期以亞洲市場擴張為主,亦逐步在美歐地區嘗試拓展,當前已開設門店數26 家(其中12 家長期店/14 家快閃店)、機器人商店100+台,計劃年底做到門店42 家(其中長期門店27 家/其餘為快閃店)、機器人商店150 台。潮玩龍頭,增長路徑清晰,維持“推薦”評級。泡泡瑪特作為龍頭企業長期深耕潮玩領域,市場關注的核心在於業績增長的穩健性和持續性,整體看公司發展路徑清晰,看好中長期品牌打造和龍頭引領地位,且海外戰略逐步提速下,預計有望為公司帶來新增長極。基於此,我們預計22-24 年歸母淨利潤分別為8.5/14.12/17.45 億元(前值為12.34/16.99/21.79 億元),對應22-24 年PE 為32/19/15X,參考絕對估值法,給予目標價36 港元,維持“推薦”評級。風險提示:渠道拓展不及預期,新客户培育不及預期,高端化不及預期等。
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