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《大行報告》大摩:內銀涉拒付房貸風險較預期小 整體風險仍可控
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,近日出現內地房地產開發項目未能如期交付,買家集體拒絕償還房貸的情況,該行覆蓋的內地銀行中,涉及抵押貸款暫停風險敞口較預期少,當中逾期貸款只佔抵押貸款總額的一小部分,因此雖然預計事件會進一步惡化,但整體風險仍然可控。 大摩指,農行(01288.HK)、工行(01398.HK)、交行(03328.HK)等大型國有銀行紛紛表示,有買家暫停支付房貸的項目涉及逾期貸款不到抵押貸款餘額的0.01%,招行(03968.HK)及平安銀行亦公布逾期抵押貸款分別僅為1,200萬及 3,180萬元人民幣,遠低於市場預期。 雖然大多數其他銀行選擇不披露面臨暫停的項目的整體風險敞口,但大摩認為整體規模應該較小,預計一小部分暫停施工的房地產項目將暫停支付房貸,可能涉及約20%至30%的延遲完工項目,導致內銀抵押貸款不良率在未來兩年,每年上升15至70個基點。 該行預期,當局將推出相關監管保障措施以穩定市場情緒,為化解風險制定路線圖。當中,中銀保監會將與住建部及人民銀行加強合作,支持地方政府積極維護項目交付、民生和社會穩定,因此預期實際抵押貸款不良率可能接近預測下限,對大多數銀行的盈利影響為5%以下,影響可控。
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