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植耀輝: 斷供消息拖累大市 淺談抽水蓄能發展
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,截至執筆為止,恆指月內表現一般,累跌1,108點或5.1%。原先困擾市場之不利消息已夠多,但爛尾樓斷供消息對投資氣氛又有新一輪打擊。執筆之時有消息指住建部門與內銀正舉行急緊會議討論相關影響,不過基於涉及問題眾多,亦非輕易可化解;另外,第三季本身亦是內房債務到期之高峰期,相關板塊壞消息恐未完,建議大家還是先「避一避」較好。至於恆指20,700點水平一旦失守,走勢亦將進一步轉弱,或須回試20,000點關口。 另外,筆者近期繼續研究抽水蓄能這一話題,皆因內地今年出台了不少相關政策及目標,電企亦大力投資該領域,亦再跟大家分享一下,先談政策面因素。根據早前發布之《抽水蓄能中長期發展規劃(2021—2035年)》,到2025年「十四五」,抽水蓄能投產總規模將較「十三五」翻一番,達到6200萬千瓦以上;到2030年,投產總規模將較「十四五」再翻一番,達到1.2億千瓦左右。不過現實情況卻是截至去年,抽水蓄能電站裝機規模亦僅為3,639萬千瓦,反映相關發展仍嚴重滯後。另一方面,亦有人認為抽水蓄能的發展其實有點尷尬,因為就發電規模而言,對比風險及光伏(截至去年底裝機總量已達到6.34億千瓦)其貢獻十分有限,還有一個更重要問題,就是是否具成本效益。 不過,抽水蓄能在電網擔當的角色似乎是有根本性不同。與其說其目的用於發電,倒不如說是將電廠多餘之電力用最佳之方法儲存。試想像電站營運基本上是24小時運作,但日夜間耗電量不同,所以當用電處於低谷時,先將多餘電力到上水庫儲存(就是將電能轉化並為水之勢能);而在用電高峰時,則將上水庫之水排放,藉此推動水輪機發電,將水力轉化為電力,這種用作平衡電網負荷的做法便稱之為「削峰填谷」,這亦被視為確保電網供應之一種手段。 內地多個省份或電企已先後公布多個抽水蓄能電站開發建設。根據內媒統計,今年上半年已有9家A股公司公布8個相關項目,合計規模1,150萬千瓦,涉及投資總額746.99億元人民幣。事實上,若以現時發展規模,意味每年相關裝機量須達到100台,但以現時兩大龍頭(哈電(01133.HK)及東方電氣(01072.HK))之產能合共約50台計,仍存在相當大缺口,預期未來增長仍看俏,故筆者依舊看好相關股份。 (筆者為證監會持牌人,持有哈電股份)~
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