中信證券：理性看待澳礦拍賣價格下跌
本文來自格隆匯專欄：中信證券研究，作者：敖翀 拜俊飛 商力
Pilbara鋰精礦拍賣價格首次出現下跌，我們判斷這主要是由於國內鋰價滯漲以及Pilbara自身擴產導致供應增加所致。在下半年鋰鹽企業生產成本上升壓力的支撐下，鋰價短期內見頂回落的概率較低。鋰精礦價格高位運行凸顯了原料的重要性。
根據財聯社報道，7月13日，澳洲鋰礦生產企業Pilbara第七次鋰精礦拍賣價格為6188美元/噸（SC5.5，FOB）。
▍鋰精礦拍賣價格首次出現下跌，反映出鋰鹽與鋰礦環節的價格博弈。
本次拍賣價格是Pilbara進行鋰精礦拍賣以來首次出現價格下滑，較6月23日拍賣價格6350美元/噸下跌2.6%。考慮國內碳酸鋰價格從6月以來持穩運行，最新價格為47.5萬元/噸，Pilbara公司6月拍賣價格對應的鋰鹽生產成本接近46萬元/噸，國內鋰鹽企業面臨較大的成本壓力。我們判斷當前國內鋰價的滯漲對本次鋰精礦拍賣造成了壓制，導致拍賣價格未能繼續上漲。
▍Pilbara鋰精礦產能順利提升，拍賣數量增多或對價格形成壓制。
根據Pilbara公吿，二季度公司鋰精礦為12.3-12.7萬噸，較上個季度環比增加54%，產量增主要得益於Ngungaju項目的重啟和Pilgan工廠的技改項目順利投產，公司預計到2022年三季度末的鋰精礦產能將達到54-58萬噸/年。由於產能提升，公司預計從7月起可用於拍賣銷售的鋰精礦數量將增加。拍賣市場的“寬鬆”在一定程度上抑制了拍賣價格的繼續衝高。
▍下半年國內鋰鹽企業面臨成本快速上升的考驗。
Pilbara公吿顯示，本次拍賣的鋰精礦將在8月25日至9月25日完成發貨，以此作為原料生產的鋰鹽產品預計在四季度才能形成銷售。這意味着行業對於四季度鋰價維持高位運行有較強的信心。根據澳洲鋰礦生產商的公吿信息，2022年第二季度企業的鋰精礦銷售價格均上漲至5000美元/噸以上，國內鋰鹽企業的生產成本在下半年將面臨大幅抬升壓力，這也是當前鋰價維持高位運行最重要的支撐因素之一。
▍以拍賣價格下跌判斷鋰價見頂為時尚早。
鋰精礦拍賣是本輪鋰價上漲的重要刺激因素，市場擔憂本次拍賣價格下跌或預示着鋰價見頂回落。但考慮到目前鋰生產企業成本不斷抬升，下游消費增長持續超預期，我們認為鋰價在短期見頂回落的概率較低。當前鋰價滯漲的主要原因是進口原料集中到港以及下游仍處於消化庫存階段，我們預計隨着上述壓制因素消除，鋰價在三季度或仍有上行空間。
▍風險因素：
鋰價大幅下跌的風險；下游需求增長不及預期的風險。
▍投資策略：
Pilbara鋰精礦拍賣價格首次出現下跌引發了市場對鋰價見頂的擔憂。我們判斷拍賣價格下跌主要是由於中國鋰鹽價格滯漲以及Pilbara自身擴產帶來的供應增長所致。下半年國內鋰鹽企業面臨着生產成本快速上升壓力，對鋰價形成支撐。鋰精礦價格高位運行凸顯了原料的重要性，推薦原料自給率高和持續提升的企業。
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