《大行報告》瑞銀:若所有集體拒還房貸轉為不良貸款 整體內銀今年盈利減少13.3%
近日內地傳媒報道,內地多個城市超過80個項目的爛尾樓業主「停貸斷供」。瑞銀發表報告,衡量事件對內地銀行信貸質素的直接影響,並估計內地銀行對暫停支付按揭的總敞口。在基礎情境下,假設貸款為樓價40%,有關停工項目料佔內地去年及今年首五個月的住宅物業銷售額約10%。
該行預期,若所有拒還房貸轉換成不良貸款,基礎情境下為7,410億元人民幣,料內銀的不良貸款比率及不良貸款覆蓋率,將分別惡化43個基點及40.7個百分點,達2.12%及160%。收入方面,假設住房按揭的加權平均利率保持於5.49%,停貸料銀行的淨利息收入損失約410億元人民幣。
另外,假設損失率為50%,7,410億元人民幣的新增不良貸款的信貸成本增加,將導致銀行業的稅前利潤減少4,110億元人民幣,稅後利潤則減少3,080億元人民幣,相當於今年銀行體系利潤總額的13.3%。
然而,該行補充指,如果考慮到房地產開發商的違約風險上升,即隨著越來越多的購房者決定停止支付抵押貸款,房地產預售資金收集難度增加以及銀行不願做抵押貸款,最終的影響可能會更糟。
該行作出壓力測試後,列出在已違約和高風險內房開發商中有較大風險曝露的內地銀行,包括了民生銀行(01988.HK)、農業銀行(01288.HK)、工商銀行(01398.HK)及招商銀行(03968.HK)。
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