《大行報告》瑞信普遍下調內地餐飲股目標價 首選百勝中國(09987.HK)
瑞信發表研究報告指出,雖然預期中國疫情防控措施放寬後,下半年餐飲銷售及客流量將逐步復甦,惟只要內地堅持「動態清零」政策,相信餐飲業將繼續面臨疫情的不確定性。在基本情景假設下,估計今年內地餐飲銷售按年跌4.5%至4.5萬億元人民幣,於2019至2025年的年均複合增長率達4.5%。
該行指出,百勝中國(09987.HK)仍為其行業首選,偏好公司業務模式具韌性,以及穩定的增長軌跡。但降九毛九(09922.HK)評級至「中性」,認為年初至今公司股價反彈,在缺乏新刺激下上行空間有限。另對海底撈(06862.HK)評級降至「跑輸大市」,以反映其溢價估值及不明確的再擴張潛力。維持對呷哺呷哺(00520.HK)「跑贏大市」評級,認為其估值吸引。另認為周黑鴨(01458.HK)的擴充空間充足。
此外,瑞信基於內地餐飲業的復甦前景緩慢,將2022及2023年內地餐飲股盈利預測分別下調21%至163%,及0%至44%,並普遍下調他們的目標價(見另表)。
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