《大行報告》美銀證券:集體拒付房貸不構成系統性風險 惟較不利零售銀行
內地近日出現房地產項目未能如期交付,買家集體拒絕支付房貸的情況。美銀證券發表研究報告指,由於並非所有按揭貸款都用於預售,有部分是用於已完成的項目和二手房,加上並不是所有陷入財務困境的開發商項目都被暫停,亦不是全國所有買家都拒絕償還貸款,因此預期事件不會對內地銀行構成系統性風險。
該行表示,事件未涉及銀行違約,主要是買家希望向銀行及開發商施壓,從而可加快項目交付,預期主要會對零售銀行造成不利影響,銀行可能會收緊貸款審批及託管賬戶管理,並嚴格遵守預售規則。
美銀又相信中國當局可能會出手幹預,包括敦促開發商交付項目,以取得融資機會,地方政府亦可能需要提供信貸支援。考慮到樓市支持政策下,近期每星期樓市銷售數據持續改善,美銀預計房地產違約風險將在短期內見頂,並隨着經濟及房屋銷售復甦而趨於穩定。
美銀預期,招商銀行(03968.HK))和興業銀行(601166.SH)的抵押貸款組合相對較高,而中國民生銀行(01988.HK)及平安銀行(000001.SZ)的開發商貸款組合較高,都可能面臨更大風險。
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