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《大行報告》匯豐研究:「內房3.0」時代來臨行業迎大洗牌 按土儲分析中海外、潤地、萬科及旭輝最具韌性
匯豐研究發表報告,預期未來十年及往後,內地發展商將經歷「大洗牌」,以往利用高槓桿以支持急速擴張的模式已成歷史。現時內房須面對更嚴厲貸款限制、監管收緊、今年內房銷售勢跌三分之一。該行形容「內房3.0」時代來臨,屬內房板塊繼過去二十年由「靜水」至「主宰」後的最終發展階段。 由於行業面對急遽變化,報告稱,內房板塊不論短期及長期展望均極具挑戰。考慮面對行業違約增加及限制性政策,該行將內房分為四類,即行業領袖、普通、「生病」,以及其他四大類。該行料至2030年內房行業規模將較2021年小26%,意味重返2017年水平。該四大分類所涵蓋內房詳見另表。 該行認為,能夠渡過挑戰的內房將有更大市佔。該行廣泛土儲分析顯示中海外(00688.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、萬科(02202.HK)及旭輝(00884.HK)在長線而言最具韌性。報告稱,它們都有可持續業務模式,專注於地區發展策略,而不是嘗試全國經營,在新購土儲上快速動工;具強勁資產負債表,可支持潛在併購;具全面管理專長,支持在核心房屋業務以外的擴張,如投資物業及物管。該行認為,此類內房長遠而言最吸引投資者。該行喜好股份維持中海外、潤地及旭輝,指在目前行業逆風下,有更具韌性經營及盈利展望。 該行對內房最新投資評級及目標價表列如下: 股份|投資評級|目標價(港元) 雅居樂(03383.HK)|持有|3.3元 中海外(00688.HK)|買入|29元 潤地(01109.HK)|買入|47.4元 中駿集團(01966.HK)|買入|1.6元 萬科(02202.HK)|買入|21.4元 旭輝(00884.HK)|買入|5.1元 碧桂園(02007.HK)|買入|5.9元 中國金茂(00817.HK)|持有|2.5元 富力地產(02777.HK)|減持|2.5元 合景泰富(01813.HK)|持有|2.7元 遠洋集團(03377.HK)|買入|1.9元 深圳控股(00604.HK)|買入|2.1元 時代中國(01233.HK)|買入|2.6元
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