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《大行報告》大和上調阿里(09988.HK)目標價至150元 評級「買入」
大和發表研究報告表示,根據最近「618」活動銷售額,重新審視對阿里巴巴(09988.HK)(BABA.US)的預測,指出在競爭激烈及消費者信心疲軟的情況下,仍未看到阿里核心商業業務出現顯著變化,但在覆蓋的中國互聯網股票中看好阿里巴巴,預期在資金流入推動下,近期股價會反彈,同時認為螞蟻集團整改的利好消息也將有助於提振市場情緒。 大和預測阿里2023財年首季度總收入將按年跌2%至2,014億元人民幣,非通用會計準則EBITA預期增至289億元人民幣,非通用會計準則淨利潤將達272億元人民幣。不過,由於受到供應鏈中斷的打擊,大和預測首財季GMV按年下降10%,計及今年618商家銷售給予更大折扣,預計分配給淘寶平台的廣告預算會減少,因此估計首財季客戶管理收入(CMR)復甦可能會落後於GMV。 雖然下半年國內消費者信心復甦的可見性有限,但大和認為阿里成本控制嚴格,盈利能力或超出市場預期,同時在在單位經濟改善的推動下,預測淘菜菜業務虧損在2023財年首季將顯著減少。大和將阿里2023至2024財年盈利預測上調0.3%至0.8%,以反映核心商業盈利能力改善,重申「買入」評級,目標價由145元上調至150元。
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