招商證券國際料恆指下半年迎上漲行情 最高上望兩萬五
招商證券國際發表港股下半年策報告,在6月內地主要城市封鎖結束後經濟出現改善跡像,政府還實施了一攬子穩增長財政和貨幣政策。該行預測2022年中國GDP增速為4.2%,三年復合平均增速為4.8%,並預計內地貨幣政策將維持適度寬鬆以支持經濟復甦。
該行指,恆生指數和MSCI中國指數年接近過去三年歷史中值水平,認為港股有望在2022年下半年迎來上漲行情,預計恆指將在21,000點至25,000點(對應預測市盈率10.5倍至12.5倍)區間運行。
招商證券國際表示對港股看法的核心邏輯如下,第一是中國的通脹壓力低於主要發達經濟體,這為貨幣政策提供了靈活的空間,認為中國經濟正走出低谷;第二是對內地房地產和基礎設施建設 投資的支持性政策;第三是刺激消費的政策出台;例如對購置日期在今年6月1日至12月31日期間單車價格(不含增值稅)不超過30萬人民幣的2.0升或以下排量乘用車減半徵收車輛購置稅;以及各地相繼推出的消費補貼。此外,政策層還在多個行業出台穩增長政策;第四是為鼓勵消費和降低失業率;第五是恆指目前估值不高;預計南下資金對港股配置需求會提高。
行業方面看好以下類別,第一是和經濟恢復息息相關的順周期板塊,例如能源、金屬和交通運輸;第二是餐飲、旅遊、汽車等線下消費;第三是政策逆風逐漸趨緩、估值已經大幅回調且基本面穩定的部分房地產和新經濟「標的」;第四是估值吸引的龍頭生物製藥公司;及第五是經濟結構轉型中政策層重點部署的低碳環保、新基建和高端製造公司。
招商證券國際亦列出港股最新首選股名單,包括阿里巴巴(BABA.US)、美團-W(03690.HK)、京東(JD.US)、網易(NTES.US)、新東方(EDU.US)、中教控股(00839.HK)、藥明康德(02359.HK)、百濟神洲(BGNE.US)、信達生物(01801.HK)、錦欣生殖(01951.HK)、工商銀行(01398.HK)、郵儲銀行(01658.HK)、國壽(02628.HK)、理想汽車-W(02015.HK)、小鵬汽車-W(09868.HK)、吉利(00175.HK)、李寧(02331.HK)、特步國際(01368.HK)及海底撈(06862.HK)。
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