植耀輝: 外圍回穩 恆指料企穩22,000點
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,港股昨日(29日)急挫,早前熱炒之汽車板塊受多個不利消息困擾,多隻股份急挫,另外科技股表現亦欠佳,拖累大市表現。港股最多曾跌至21,844點,收市前跌幅有所收窄,但全日計恆指仍未能重上22,000點關口,收報21,996點,下跌422點。經昨日一跌,恆指月內漲幅亦縮減至581點或2.7%。
跌市其中一個元兇爲汽車板塊。蔚來-SW(09866.HK)遭沽空機構狙擊,加上理想汽車(02015.HK)亦宣佈擬增發ADS,拖累股價急跌之餘,相關概念股亦大跌。蔚來汽車及理想汽車便分別下跌11%及8.8%。其餘車股表現亦差,比亞迪(01211.HK)跌5%已算有所表現,吉利(00175.HK)及長汽(02333.HK)跌幅便分別達到8.2%及9.2%。汽車零部件股跌勢更「得人驚」,力勁(00558.HK)及浙江世寶(01057.HK)均大跌近21%,敏實(00425.HK)及耐世特(01316.HK)則分別下跌8%及9.8%。
由於該板塊早前累升不少,故一旦出現負面消息,投資者先行套現亦合理,另外雖然蔚來有就狙擊作出簡單迴應,惟似乎並未令投資者放下戒心,所以車股後市仍須視乎蔚來狙擊事件之演化以及整體投資氣氛;不過基於政策仍會積極扶持相關產業,相信在事件過後會有力反彈,可待調整過後再作部署。
至於大市表現,港股昨日跌勢頗全面,不排除是急升後之獲利回吐。由於隔晚美股跌勢喘定,加上港股投資氣氛暫仍正面,今日料有望回穩,預期大市料可重上22,000點。短期後市上方目標暫仍先看22,500點
(筆者爲證監會持牌人,持有敏實股份)
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恆指先回補6月27日上升裂口後有較大反彈動力
耀才研究部稱,隔晚(29日)美股收市變動不大,美國經濟數據參差,投資者仍然在消化聯儲局可能採取的行動,接下來聯儲官員的講話將有關鍵作用。鮑威爾仍然相信軟着陸是可能實現的,美國經濟實際上處於非常強勁的狀態,令市場相信當局會維持大力度的加息,壓制了股市的彈幅。金龍中國指數跌0.65%,同樣變動不大,中概股昨日急跌後今日(30日)有望靠穩。港股假期前夕投資者入市意欲不大,相信有部份熱錢將暫時離場觀望,內地今日將公佈PMI,市場預期爲50.5,較前值上升0.9個百分點,並重返擴張區間,留意數據能否爲市場帶來驚喜。
技術上,恆指於MACD、RSI以及成交量配合下,形成自5月起浪高於浪的格局,恆指仍然有機會創出季內新高,由於指數暫時未能突破即市阻力22,523點,即市支持可考慮回補6月27日上升裂口即21,762點。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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