《大行報告》美銀證券降恆生(00011.HK)及東亞(00023.HK)評級 港銀股首選中銀(02388.HK)
美銀證券發表研究報告指,香港銀行股年初至今表現跑贏恆指,主要是由於市場預期受惠美聯儲加息。
然而來自中國內地商業地產敞口的撥備壓力下,該行認為恆生銀行(00011.HK)及東亞銀行(00023.HK)盈利風險較大,因此將恆生及東亞今年盈利預測分別下調19%及33%,明年盈利預測下調7%至8%。恆生評級由「買入」下調至「中性」,而東亞的評級則由「中性」降至「跑輸大市」,目標價分別下調至145元及11.4元。
美銀表示,在香港和中國內地宏觀經濟疲軟的情況下,將股權成本預測上調50個基點,維持中銀香港(02388.HK)盈利預測大致不變,料2022財年盈利將按年增長12.1%,並將其目標價上調8%至35.4元,看好中銀香港將憑藉強勁的資產質素達到盈利復甦,繼續列為行業首選,評級「買入」。
美銀指出,中銀香港內地商業地產的敞口主要為優質國有企業,加上撥備覆蓋率審慎,相信撥備壓力有限。而由於撥備費用較高,美銀預計恆生及東亞銀行今年上半年淨利潤將按年下降40%至50%。
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