《大行報告》匯豐研究降中電(00002.HK)評級至「持有」 下調目標價至72元
匯豐研究表示,鑑於澳洲未來可能面臨的挑戰帶來的盈利不確定性,將中電控股(00002.HK)2022-23年每股盈測下調4.3%及1.3%,目標價自88元下調至72元,同時缺乏積極的催化劑,將評級從「買入」下調至「持有」,不過由於中電重申維持其股息分配政策的意圖,認為估值的下行空間似乎有限。
匯豐研究指,澳洲業務的對沖損失是非現金的,因市場調整而產生的非現金調整可能會在未來價格下跌和對沖工具到期時被撤銷,鑑於燃料成本主要由自有煤礦和多年供應合同固定,集團利潤率應具有韌性。
匯豐研究認為,澳洲電廠的營運是集團真正的問題,雅洛恩電廠和Mount Piper電廠的某些發電機組分別由於停電和煤炭供應,而存在可用性問題,意味著EnergyAustralia須在市場上購買電力來履行其供應義務,這使2022年首五個月的核心經營盈利(不包括非現金項目)按年減少11億元,這意味著該行估計的經營虧損4.5億元。
中電表示,自2022年6月起,雅洛恩電廠和Mount Piper的所有機組都將恢復正常運行,可供應電力,部分受益於電價高企。匯豐研究表示,由於對煤炭供應的擔憂,仍然擔心今年下半年的可用性因素,因為澳洲四分之一的燃煤產能因天氣寒冷而停產,因此下調對中電2022年及以後的核心盈利預測。
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